Monday, September 05, 2005

kursk and Katrina

for some reason, i decided to look for parallels between the NOLA floods, and the sinking of the Russian submarine, Kursk, five summers ago. i think i hit a goldmine.

of course, there are some similarities, and some differences.

when reading, substitute as follows (obviously):
  • Putin = Bush
  • Kursk = NOLA
  • 108 meters below sea level = 5 meters below sea level
  • 118 dead = many thousands dead + tens of thousands injured and sick and hundreds of thousands displaced
  • Russian spokespeople = Chertoff and Brown
  • Chechnya = Iraq
  • Lost submarine = Lost city
  • Dacha = Palatial Estate in Crawford

and theres one final difference right at the bottom of this post.

read, weep
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from CNN:
"Shock is turning to anger in Russia as hope for the safety of the crew of the trapped nuclear submarine (city) Kursk (NOLA) begins to fade.
Reports say there is disbelief that the Russian navy waited several days before asking for help from the UK and Norway, whose rescue teams are expected to be in place over the weekend.
The growing public outcry has forced President Vladimir Putin (Bush) to cut short his holiday in the Black Sea, where he remained silent on the unfolding drama in the Barents Sea, and return to Moscow.
[snip]
For the past week millions of Russians have been glued to television news reports offering increasingly gloomy prospects for the 118 (many thousands) men trapped 350ft (108 metres) below sea level.
[snip]
The face of naval spokesman Captain Igor Dygalo (Chertoff/Brown), who has appeared live on all three major networks' several broadcasts every day all week, is now familiar to millions of Russians."
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From Slate:
"Many papers criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin's (Bush's) heartlessness. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, former KGB officer Oleg Gordievsky asked how Putin (Bush) could appear so unmoved by the fate of the submariners (civilians) and concluded: "The answer is simple: because he is indifferent. He genuinely doesn't care. … [H]e is a product of the Soviet system." The Financial Times agreed, saying, "The Soviet era placed a low value on the lives of ordinary Russians, nowhere more than in the armed forces where political leaders have accepted loss of life on a scale unacceptable in the west."

The Telegraph quoted Isvestia: "People's faith in the state's ability to protect them from misfortune has also sunk to the oceanbed. Along with the submarine (city) , our government, too, has hit the bottom."

An excellent ticktock of the disaster in Britain's Observer stated, "The fate of the Kursk (NOLA) has struck a chord across the nation in a way not witnessed in years. The huge steel tomb on the bed of the Barents Sea has become a symbol of all the grievances, the pent-up frustrations, the anger and the disappointment in contemporary Russia." The Daily Telegraph asked why, after giving him "an easy ride" on the second Chechen (Iraq) war, the Russian press has now turned on Putin (Bush)

The Moscow Times described Sunday's elections in Chechnya (Iraq) as "an ugly farce." Noting that 30 servicemen and two civilians died in election-related violence this week, the paper said, "As with the Kursk (NOLA) fiasco, officialdom again casually writes off innocent lives in the name of abstract prides.""
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and the following are just *some* snippets from a global media wrap called "Kursk Submarine Disaster: Russian Elite Scored, Democracy Tested" by the excellent Federation of American Scientists
"The "nightmare" plight of the Russian nuclear submarine, Kursk (NOLA) , and the uncertain fate of its crew touched a nerve in overseas newspapers, as much for its indictment of the Russian government's "poor" response as for the "human tragedy." Editorials from Europe, Asia and Canada roundly denounced Russian authorities for putting "pride before urgency" and reverting to Soviet-era "secrecy and lies," by initially failing to disclose the extent of the calamity and then refusing offers of international assistance until late in the game. Nowhere were the recriminations harsher than in Moscow's print media. Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta spoke for many in accusing Russian leaders of being "still in the grip of the morally outdated Soviet ideology" that fails to make "human lives the primary concern."" Among reformist papers, Kommersant averred that "someone must answer for the loss of human lives," while Vremya-MN charged that "our military refuses to see the obvious--it takes an international effort to cope with emergencies like this one." Izvestiya added, "The Russian elite's reflexes have not changed in the past 10 to 15 years. It has yet to adapt to this new world.... Its first reflex is to hide the truth. But it can't--this country and the world have changed." Judgments were also condemnatory elsewhere, echoing a Madrid daily's claim that "the Russian government acted belatedly, badly and begrudgingly, wielding all the habits of secrecy and autocracy of its predecessors.

POLITICAL FALLOUT AGAINST PUTIN (BUSH): Writers reserved especially strong censure for President Putin (Bush) . Many claimed that in dealing with this "first major disaster" on his watch, "his ability to comfort and sustain, as well as to rule" has been found lacking. This could "come back to haunt him politically," warned one. Particularly irksome, declared a Moscow daily, was that "he has not interrupted his vacation...if only for an hour, to support the seamen in distress." Alluding to his seeming inability to grasp the "demands" of democratic leadership, Oslo's independent Dagbladet observed that "every other democratically elected head of state would have gotten as near the site [of the accident] as humanly possible."

LITMUS TEST FOR RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY: Despite the "old," "Soviet-style fortress mentality" at the top, several held that the "wave of criticism" heard among the Russian public and particularly in its media--which European papers called "virulent" in their criticism of "Putin's (Bush's) silence and inaction"--was proof that "democracy is working." Said London's centrist Independent, "At first, there was little reaction from the Russian public.... But then the gates of democracy opened, and the whirlwind of accountability swept into...Putin's (Bush's) holiday dacha (Palatial Estate in Crawford) "

"The Russian elite's reflexes have not changed in the past 10 to 15 years. It has yet to adapt to this new world and it slips into its old ways whenever there is a danger to it, exactly as in the days of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Its first reflex is to hide the truth. But it can't--this country and the world have changed so. That makes their antics look even more monstrous."

"How good are our armed forces? We've been told that they are combat ready. I wouldn't be so sure after what happened in the Barents Sea. Why keep an enormous and costly fleet of nuclear submarines if we can't support them on combat missions as short as three days? Do we need them to feel like a great power?... We should live within our means. And that goes for the army, too. It's wrong to have illusions about defense. It is as bad as a crime. The crisis in our North Fleet in a small way reflects a crisis in our army reform.... Our president, the supreme commander, has not been at his best either. Three weeks ago he stopped his important work in Moscow to spend a day in Baltiisk, celebrating Navy Day. But he has not interrupted his vacation to visit Severomorsk, if only for an hour, and support the seamen in distress. Too bad, the American president, during their telephone conversation the other day, did not advise him to go there, as he himself would certainly have done."

"Healthy democracies, unlike dictatorships, learn from their mistakes and are strengthened by them. That is the test for Russia today, as the submarine disaster in the Barents Sea approaches what seems increasingly likely to be a tragic ending.... At first, there was little reaction from the Russian public: Russian pride demanded solidarity, the tradition of totalitarianism stifled doubt. But then the gates of democracy opened, and the whirlwind of accountability swept into President Putin's (Bush's) holiday dacha (Palatial Estate in Crawford) . Yesterday's Russian press was virulent in its criticism of his silence and inaction. This is a form of politics that is familiar to us. Not only has Mr. Putin (Bush) made a serious error of judgment in failing to ask for help immediately, but he has compounded it by appearing insouciant. No democratic politician can afford to remain on holiday in a crisis. Mr. Putin (Bush) seemed to understand the demands of modern media presentation when he was elected. To be sure, his image-management was a little crude, winning a khaki election on the back of the second Chechen (Iraq) war, but he was recognizably a democratic politician cut from the same sort of material as Blair, Bush and Gore. That means he is now subject to the cruel blast of democracy.... Putin (Bush) will pay a heavy price for his sins of omission in failing to respond quickly to this accident. But he will try to prevent such a disaster from happening again. It must be hoped that public accountability will force the fresh air of democracy into the closed spaces of the Russian military and the Russian government."

"Nor has Putin (Bush) given the impression of pulling out all the stops in the rescue. Far from living up to the Western image of 'hands on' leadership that he has cultivated, he is sitting out the crisis thousands of mile away holidaying on the Black Sea.... However, the president is wrong if he thinks he has the luxury of exercizing power in remote Soviet style. If Russia is enough of a democracy to inform its people of big mishaps, its people will want to see their leaders taking resolute action."

"Barring a miracle rescue, it will be the first major disaster President Putin (Bush) has had to deal with since coming to power, and a test of his ability to comfort and sustain, as well as to rule. An untested politician and product of the foreign intelligence apparatus, Putin (Bush) rose to power on the back of Boris Yeltsin's senescence and the war in Chechnya (Iraq) . He has not, so far, had to expend emotional or political capital on shoring up his authority."

"Just like they did for the Chernobyl tragedy, the Russians have sent a spokesman to the front lines. Igor Dygalo's (Chertoff/Brown's) rhetoric is weak. Every sentence he pronounces is immediately contradicted by the next. His tone is elliptical and his explanations are not credible."

"Heads will be rolling soon and Putin (Bush) , who is vacationing on the Black Sea, will be meditating on this latest accumulation of errors while keeping his fingers crossed in the hopes of avoiding a full-fledged national disaster."

"Russia still has a long way to go before it can be considered a democracy according to the Western model.... In France, Great Britain and the United States, every government leader who had gone on vacation in view of such a disaster, would be swept out of office due to public outrage. But times have also changed in Russia. The czars and their Soviet successors simply did not have to take care of public concerns. In their majority, the Russians still want a strong man, a kind of czar, at the lead. But they want someone who takes care of the people and who is with them in times of misery. Putin's (Bush's) heartless silence and the serious shortcomings during the rescue mission could destroy his reputation as the savior of the Russian motherland."

"Vladimir Putin (Bush) , who constantly preaches patriotism and national greatness has now shown the world where the orientation to such terms can lead to... The picture of a man of quick and self-confident decisions has got its first blemishes."

"For more than a year the play 'The Emperor's New Clothes' was played in Russian: Putin (Bush) as parachutist, Putin (Bush) on a nuclear submarine during the test of a new intercontinental missile, Putin (Bush) as supreme commander at the Chechen (Iraqi) front. His message was that [the rest of the world] has to count on Russia again. And now the accident of the 'Kursk' (NOLA) . It looks like the girl in a fairy tale who says...that the emperor is naked. The most depressing thing with respect to the disillusionment of the Russian military power, however, is of a human, not strategic nature.

"The tragedy with the Kursk (NOLA) says a lot about Russia... Human lives have never been very important to Russian generals. That is still clear every day in Chechnya (Iraq) . Maybe, a miracle can still save the lives of the crew, but nobody believes that now. In that case, Putin (Bush) will be held responsible. Criticism is already growing in Russia. The tragedy may harm him greatly, but he caused it himself. People who gamble with human lives do not deserve compassion."

"But after the 'Kursk' (NOLA) went down, [Putin] (Bush) went on vacation.... Such things don't go over well at home when an entire country, and the whole world, is following what is going on at the bottom of the ice-cold Barents Sea. The Russian media have also noted this. They report, and they comment. 'Kursk' (NOLA) may become, as Echo of Moscow hints, a blow to Putin's (Bush's) prestige."

"The submarine drama in the Barents Sea is incomprehensible as a human tragedy.... National pride is not unique to Russia. At the same time, the tragedy has enough 'Russian' elements. The most obvious is President Putin's (Bush's) reaction. He is on vacation at the Black Sea.... Every other democratically elected head of state would have gotten as near the site as humanly possible, because he or she would have known that a democracy demands such of its leader. The former KGB man doesn't know this yet.... And all reports tell of a population that has also become more modern than what the Russian government had thought and perhaps hoped. Therefore, the submarine wreck will not only leave behind dead, despair and perhaps nuclear contamination, it will also mark that the Russian society has grown beyond its leaders. This is the most important 'Russian' element of the accident."
(the FAS piece has much more, but i think ive made my point)
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And, finally, a difference between Kursk and NOLA, from the Beeb
Putin admits 'guilt' for sub disaster:
"Russian President Vladmir Putin (Bush) has (hasn't) said on state television that he feels responsible and guilty for the Kursk submarine (NOLA) disaster in which 118 sailors (many thousands) lost their lives.

Mr Putin (Bush) said he had (hasn't) received offers of resignation from the defence minister, the navy chief and the commander of the Northern Fleet..."
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remember: 'virulent criticism is proof that democracy is working'.

please america, prove to me that your democracy is still working

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