THE Bush administration fully expects al-Qa'ida to attempt a big terrorist attack in the US between now and November's presidential election, according to Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.

If you get it from Armitage, you can put it in the bank.

Armitage does not buy the idea that al-Qa'ida is now so decentralised that its attacks are semi-random. Instead, he characterises it this way: "This is a living, thinking, breathing enemy. They want to be as effective as possible."

Armitage comments: "You [Australia] are not targets because you're allies of the US but because you stand against the things that al-Qa'ida wants to bring forward."

As you read Woodward, a lot of the difference seems to be tonal.

Australia, he says, "has a lot of political capital to draw on in this town". Oddly, perhaps, this is confirmed in Woodward's book. Written from an American point of view, for American readers and entirely from American sources, Woodward makes repeated mention of George W. Bush consulting John Howard, taking Howard's political difficulties into account, of Howard urging, successfully, that Bush, against Cheney's advice, try the UN route.

Australians underestimate the influence the Howard Government has had in Washington. Sometimes we underestimate ourselves altogether. Armitage, a friend and a hardhead, never makes that mistake.

(Greg Sheridan is a visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.)