Why Spain turned on Aznar
You may attempt to make the argument that Spain rewarded Osama bin Laden by rejecting Aznar, but I do not recommend you attempt to make it on the streets of Madrid. If you did, you would quickly be confronted by the truth. Aznar sealed his own fate by lying to the Spanish people.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/052804A.shtml

Aznar lied on two major counts. First; In committing the Spanish to a war they did not want, taking the position that it was needed to fight terrorism. That is a lie. The minions of bin Laden will never be defeated by armies marching. They can only be defeated meticulous police work and by social and economic conditions that do not drive supporters to them. Second; In the aftermath of the bombings, Aznar attempted gain political advantage by blaming the Basque separatist group ETA. That was an insult to Spain.

The resulting verdict rendered at the polls was not an acceptance of bin Laden's madness, but rather a condemnation of Aznar's betrayal of Spain.

Wednesday's press briefing by John Ashcroft was a puzzlement. The presentation appeared more geared towards public relations than public safety. One had to wonder if Ashcroft was trying to stop terror, or cause it. Where was the information here? What purpose did this serve? For the record Mr. Ashcroft, if you have any real information about attacks on Americans, we would love to hear about them

Ashcroft did take the opportunity to suggest that Madrid might set the stage for similar attacks in the U.S. prior to our November elections, saying, "Al-Qaida may perceive that a large-scale attack in the United States this summer or fall would lead to similar consequences." Al-Qaida may perceive that, but only if they can't read. The last Al-Qaida operation on U.S. soil did little to empower the opposition. On the contrary, it put the opposition on the endangered species list.

The Baghdad trap
If you believe that bin Laden would like to sweep Bush from power, then you would have to wonder if an act of violence on U.S. soil would produce that. However if you are concerned that Baghdad is bin Laden's trap for Bush, then you might wonder if another attack on U.S. soil might better serve bin Laden's interest. It would, in greater likelihood, keep Bush in power and the U.S. Army in Baghdad. If that, in fact, is what bin Laden wants, then this could be a very dangerous summer indeed.

Can bin Laden save Bush?
Bush is in trouble for sure. It would take something big to wash away the memory of the twisted freak-show at Abu Grahib, and the Chalabi betrayal has yet to really see the light of day. So the question hangs a bit. The answer may lie in another question: Will the Americans accept the same lies that the Spanish would not?