Saturday, June 19, 2004

For now the use of these bases, as they are under construction, will remain low key. But after the election -- or the lack of an election due to a terrorist attack -- the bases will serve as a staging ground for attack. Some event will be cooked up as an excuse to launch an attack on each nation in turn. It may come from OSP-styled "intelligence" -- Iran's fledgling nuclear program and Syria's support for terrorism in Lebanon and elsewhere -- but I think it is more likely there will be a large terrorist event attributed to Iran or Syria in Iraq (imagine the entire IGC wiped out in a suicide bombing) or Israel (most likely a very deadly suicide attack killing dozens or hundreds of Israelis blamed on Hezbollah and thus Syria).

As it now stands, the US military is overstretched in Iraq, so it cannot afford to launch major military operations against Iran or Syria and hold Iraq at the same time. So early next year or by no later than June of the next year a military draft will be reinstituted. In fact, Congress is already working on this, as you may have heard. It is entirely conceivable that by the end of next year there will be enough draftees for invasions of Iran and Syria.

Attacking Iran and Syria and sending hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the Middle East will likely be the match to ignite the tinderbox -- and this is precisely what the neocons want.
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