Thus the new assumption gaining ground in both campaigns - that with the country divided into two virtually equal blocs, the outcome may not be determined in the classic way, by a dwindling band of independent, genuinely undecided swing voters in the centre. Instead, the key for each party is to fire up its core constituencies with fear and loathing, to get them to vote to keep the competing ideology out. Karl Rove, Mr Bush's master strategist, has publicly argued that the last election (where Mr Bush actually lost the popular vote by 500,000 to Al Gore) would not even have been close, had the Republicans managed to get to the polls four million evangelical Christians who in the event stayed at home.

Seen in that light, the goings-on of the past few days fall into place - from Mr Kerry's talk about "letting America be America again", to the Republicans' insistence that at this hour of great national issues, the United States Senate discusses not Iraq, healthcare or unemployment. Rather it devoted two precious days to debating a constitutional amendment to gay marriage.

No less noteworthy, despite the entreaties of three former presidents - Republican as well as Democrat - and every police association in the land, Mr Bush is showing no haste in moving to renew a 10-year ban in semi-automatic weapons which expires this autumn. And why? In order not to upset the gun lobby, which likes to see itself as a representative of unvarnished frontier values, just like this President.


http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=542367