vegemite on toast

* everyones joined in the 'florida voting is corrupt' thingy.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=566688
if bush wanted to confound everyone, he'd lose florida and still win the election.

* gallup "Likely Voter Sample Party IDs
Total Sample: 758 GOP: 328 (43%) Dem: 236 (31%) Ind: 189 (25%)" whic of course is 20% bias, not 12%. and the indy pool looks suspiciously large. (altho praps not) - its so easy to get the desired response.
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002881.html

* soros for president http://www.georgesoros.com/

* the fannie mae thing has been bubbling under the surface for months. dog knows what sort of damage a broken fannie/freddie would do.

* btw - i havent seen the media here do any real 'we might get madrided' bits.
ftr - if theres a pre-election attack here, my guess is that itll be syd 50%, melb 30% and 20% other places. assuming its in a single city. therell definitely be simultaneuous attacks tho. of course.

when? probably to tap into the friday news cycle in the us. it would be ideal if it was actually on election day - but that prolly largely removes the logic that the atack was to scare people into changing their vote - given that some people mightnt hear the news. so its prolly gotta before sat. prolly friday. madrid and 911 were both am commuter hours - altho fri am in oz is prolly too early in the us newz cycle for max impact. so that leaves open the possibility of a pm commuter hour attack - or all day really. madrid was on a friday, with a tue election. on that basis, we could suggest that the 4 day period was to inflict max psycholigcal impact on a terrified (and by then, outraged) public. my inclination is that the friday was more important than the 4 days of frenzy - but im only guessing. which leaves open the possibility of an attack here at any time next week. or even in 2 days time possibly, to get ozzies all terrified over the weekend. or praps the 4 day thing in spain was to give aznar time to hang himself. i wonder if howard will get aznar'd. to be sure, i havent got a clue whether the idea is to portray oz as a good friend and brave people who stood up to the terrorists and voted howard in again, or if they are gonna give howard enough rope to hang himself and set up the 'ams will not appease - we cant let the errorists win' storyline. im pretty sure that any actual contribution made by oz troops is irrelevant. and im sure that the jihadmin doesnt give a shiit about how many teams are in the coalition. and they certainly dont give a shitt about sherrifjohnny manofsteel.

who? prolly zarq or JI. i dont know anything about ji.

how? with any luck, itll be a madrid size problem. hopefully mainstream explosives and hopefully a mainstream target. like a train. or 4. the prob is that if its zarq, then he'll use chemicals prolly. and probably for mass effect. its difficult to imagine going all the way to oz to upset an election, and then trying to do it with a car bomb or an unheading. i think chems work best when u have lots of people together - which brings up the possibility that the rugby league grandfinal in sydney might be a target this weekend. another possibility is an oiltanker going up in sydney harbour. or a plane hitting the harbour bridge or opera house. given the inevitable terror fatigue, combined with ams famed short memories - itll have to be something pretty spectacular here to make the (presumed) requisite impact. the hundreds dead in madrid are jsut a memory and wont effect a single vote, the same can prolly be said for beslan. already.

whats the likelihood? i dunno. if alq did madrid, then alq can/might do an attack here. if spanish fascista did madrid like xymph reckons, then low risk here. if u think that theres any chance that either alq or the evilpeople might attack the us pre-election, then the same is prolly also true here. in fact, if your job was to terrorise the us election and u didnt think of attacking oz then u arent doing your job properly.




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