email to Common Ills

subject: faux equivalence

i wanted to bring your attention to this article By GARDINER HARRIS and BENEDICT CAREY http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/11/politics/11drug.html - and particularly this evil sentence "Dr. Temple of the F.D.A. said that 7 children taking Ritalin and Concerta died during the same period that 12 children taking Adderall died, suggesting equivalent risks." and particularly the last bit: "suggesting equivalent risks". its not obvious whether dr. temple was indeed 'suggesting equivalent risks', or whether that is, ummmmm, editorialising - but heres the thing(s) 1) 12 deaths is 70% higher than 7 - so its probably not really equivalent. 2) its not obvious from the article but it seems that the '7' refers to *both* Ritalin and Concerta combined. 3) Adderall has less than 4% mkt share.

i couldnt be bothered doing the exact research, but if we assume that ritalin has 50% market share, and we assume that there are 3.5 deaths (half of seven) from ritalin, then we get the increased risk of *death* from adderall vs ritalin as (20/3.5=5.7)*(50/4=12.5)=71. now, i dont have a clue as to whether ritalin is safe - but Adderall is 7100% more likely to kill your kid - and i would argue that that *does not* 'suggest equivalent risks' - and i would further argue that the language that the journos use virtually proves that they are either totally stupid, or are also being paid by the manufacturer. its impossible to imagine that they are being so disingenuous by accident.

"suggesting equivalent risks" indeed.

let me also note the title of the article is relatively benign "Senator Says F.D.A. Asked Canada Not to Suspend Drug" - and the 'journos' studiously avoid using the term 'attention deficit disorder' until the 27th para of a 28 para article (articles elsewhere have ADD or ADHD in the title)

"suggesting equivalent risks" indeed. it makes me grumpy that the entire universe seems, ummmm, 'beholden' to these drug companies. seems to me theres something wrong with killing kids for dollars. killing kids is bad enough, but im only commenting here on the nyt's complicity.

(xymphora has his own take on it http://xymphora.blogspot.com/2005/02/adderall.html)

grrrrrr.
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four moron years.
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