i havent even finished putting everything down, let alone organised any of it, but im probably not gonna finish it - so fwiw - here is the incomplete draft in all its unglory. unfinished, as is. (FTR, i havent even read through it)
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time for a london overview - nearly 2 weeks after the event, there are a bunch of things we know, and a bunch of unknowns. so lets revisit:
REALLY REALLY KNOWNS:
1. at least four bombs went off,
2. the first bomb exploded at about 8.49am on july 7
3. more than 50 people are dead and a lot more are injured.
beyond that, its kinda difficult to be sure what the hell is going on. the official version of the story has changed so many times that im still dizzy.
im only being a little bit facetious. the official version of the story is that 4 bombs exploded, 3 exploded on the tube within a minute of each other at 8.50am, and another on the bus at 9.47am. im pretty happy to accept all that as fact at the moment, although the early reports were that the explosions on the tube were spaced over an hour or so, and the early reports were that there was something like 7 different explosions - originally attributed to power problems.
"Originally police thought only the Aldgate/Liverpool Street train was hit at (8.50am). The Russell Square/King's Cross blast was first reported at 8:56, and the Edgware blast at 9:17. A review of technical data and witness accounts showed the three bombs actually went off within about 50 seconds." link
i only mention these discrepancies, because the story since then has unfolded in much the same way - and many incorrect stories seemed to survive much longer than they should have. it seems that the same pattern continues to this day, and will continue to do so - to that extent consider this post a work-in-progress...
at different times we have been told that the bombs were:
a) simultaneous/not
b) military/home made
c) suicide/homicide (but not in a Fox way)
d) foreigners/home-bred
e) alqaeda/not alqaeda
f) iraq invasion blowback / unrelated to iraq
g) olympics / g8
h) pakistan/egypt
i) et al
on the 14th of july, the MetPolice said: "There has been enormous public interest as to the progress of the investigation. The media have obviously tried to meet that interest. Much of the reporting has been accurate, and some has been speculative."
http://cms.met.police.uk/news/major_operational_announcements/terrorist_attacks/press_conference_pictures_of_hasib_hussain_released
as far as i can tell, thats about the most sense we've heard since the bombing. the problem is that there appears to be much spinning, even from within the same force - attributed and not.
the official story at the moment seems to be that one fella from the leeds area rented a car at headingly and in the early morn of 7/7 drove down to luton with two of his associates where they met another guy. they both parked their cars at the luton train station car park and jumped on a train together to kings cross. at kings cross, they went happily on their separate ways to suicide and mass murder and 72 virgins.
thus the meta-narrative was set - the only problem is that there were problems with the story.
we were told that on the day of the bombings, the mother of the busbomber called to register that her son was missing. on monday the 11th at about 8pm, he was apparently spotted on the cctv footage from kings cross with his three friends - all with 'military-style backpacks' luaghing and carrying on and 'looking like they were going on holidays' - shortly afterwards however they 'crucially' walked off in different directions. the following morning, there were a series of dawn raids at homes of 3 of them in the leeds/dewsbury area where a bunch of bomb-type stuff was found. crucially, while the police were searching one of the properties, some folks from the rental car agency arrived looking for their car (which was only on 24 hour rental from the previous thursday) - this led the police to the luton car park, where they found the car. they also found another suspicious car (a red fiat) there belonging to the guy who met the leeds three. its not exactly clear, but the red fiat (at least , but maybe both) had some explosives inside. the net seemed to be closing.
on tuesday the 12th, the police also announced that they had found documents identifying each of the four bombers at each of the explosion sites. the net seemed to be closing, or even closed.
on tuesday the 12th, the UK papers suggested that the kings cross cctv footage which showed the four bombers together, and which was described in detail by anonymous sources, was expected to be released that day. the following day, we also heard that the kings cross footage 'will probably be released today'. but it wasnt. we also heard the same on the thursday morning, but in the afternoon they released this pic from luton
the pic was widely described as 'chilling' but there wasnt much other commentary about it. many hours later, Jim Lehrer said, almost incidentally, that the pic was cropped thusly to cut out the other suicide bombers - im not sure if that was true, but, if so, it seemed kinda odd. they MetPolice simultaneously launched a specific campaign trying to provoke the public to provide information about his movements, and 'the missing 81 minutes'. remember, at this point, they have video footage of him with his friends at kings cross, and so they release a non-descript 'still' of him by himself at luton. it seems odd to me. i dont know nuthin bout solvin crimes, but if i was trying to appeal to the public for more information, id be saying 'here are the pix we have of the guy, and here are the specific times, and here are the specific locations, and here are the people he was with. were u at any of these palces at these times? do u recognise any of these people?' etc etc. i can imagine there are conceivably occasions where you dont wanna show you entire hand, but when your proxies have described the situations, and when all the other guys are dead, and when its a really big crime, and you are begging the public for help, its difficult to imagine why you'd wanna withhold this sort of information. meanwhile, we are in the 7th day of waiting to see the footage that will 'prove' some sort of complicity, as youve previously described.
lets take a step back - ive travelled a number of times from leeds to london, by both road and rail, and its fucking hell. i havent travelled it more than 10 occasions, but ive known both the 2 hour and the 6 hour version. if i was planning the greatest attack on english soil for half a century, i wouldnt rely on being able to get anywhere on schedule. if we assume they wanted to attack at the 'perfect' time - just before nine am, then id make sure that i was on-site the previous night. no discussion. hell - id even do that for an important meeting. these guys were about to blow themselves up - and a bunch of other people - they could have gone to the most expensive hotel in town and put it on credit. we can only assume that their goal was to attack at peak time - the cost of missing that window is enormous. what would happen if they missed that window? would they have done the same thing if they had limped in to kings cross at 10.45? we were repeatedly told that this sort of thing takes 'months and months' to prepare - surely you wouldnt rely on blairs trains to run like mussolini's (despite the other comparisons)
so lets take a closer look at their apparent plan to carry out the crime of the century and blow themselves to smithereens in the process - they left leeds at some indeterminate time - probably around 4am (im guessing) - and arrived at luton in time to be seen by the cameras at 7.21am. for some reason, they didnt catch the 7.40 train, but got on the 7.48 train instead, which was due at kings cross at 8.20am. the reports seem to suggest that they 'arrived' at kings cross at 8.26am, and they were caught on cctv together at 8.28am.
for those who dont know, kings cross is a hub for both overland/country trains, and also for the tube - so you arrive there by overground, then you have to get into the tube, and then find your way to the appropriate platform. its a fucking ratmaze the first 5 times you experience it. and some of the underground platforms are *deep* - and at peak hour its absolute chaos, even if you know what you are doing, and you have a ticket (i assume that the guys arriving from luton already had an underground ticket - but im not sure). the tube was built 100 years ago - you can have your nose right at the door of a train when it arrives at the platform but still not get on.
so in this envirnoment, assuming our bombers wanna blow people up in the pre-9am rush, the idea of arriving upstairs at 8.26 is really cutting things fine. not the sort of thing you'd expect from criminal masterminds who were about to cause mass mayhem and change the course of history. we are also told repeatedly how 'sophisticated' these attacks are, and how they require 'months and months' of planning. (it behooves me to comprehend why this is so, but we are certainly told this repeatedly)
now we see the mass media leverage the ideas of the MET and speculate that maybe they were duped. of course, the facts kinda get in the way, but we apparently need to maintain the fiction that these evil folks were actually intent on mass murder, but they were somehow duped into thinking that they could escape from their evil crimes.
i call bullshit. ive been in the tube and wondered if id ever escape - and that was without the threat of bombs. but more than that, the received wisdom is that these folks purchased return tickets to luton. i havent been able to ascertain how they worked this out, but its not just speculation - Scotland Yard itself is asking this very question, alongside the fact that they had valid parking tickets. even cnn is discussing this issue - before they segue into a 'clash of civilisation?' piece
ok - so lets look at the suicide bomber theory. it appears that the bombers had return tickets to luton, and at least one of them had paid for weekly parking at luton (according to the nyt, altho i havent been able to find that elsewhere). its not obvious what sort of parking arrangements the leeds car had organised - we are told that they had paid for their parking, and william bowles tells us that they had 8-hour parking. i havent been able to verify that - he told me he'd get back to me with his source. some have argued that it was reasonable to have paid for the parking in an effort to avoid attention - that makes some sense, although its difficult to imagine why someone needed a weeks worth of parking given that the plan was appaerntly to be with the virgins within a couple of hours. similarly, some have tried to argue that it makes sense to have return tickets so as to avoid suspicion. this is obviously nonsense.
similarly, if we are to buy into the suicide story, then we are asked to believe that the bombers would leave explosives in the car. this is nonsense on its face. we are also asked to believe that they would leave a bunch of handy tips in their homes which would lead investigators to their network - including explosives and their computers. interestingly, we havent heard anything about these computers and their emails and the fact that they visited 'bomb making' sites and all the rest of it.
next, lets look at the theory that they weer duped into being suiciders, when they really only to meant to commit mass murder. if they werent suiciding, then we have to assume that they didnt want to get caught - either cos they didnt want to be punished, or because they wanted to be free to carry out more attacks.
at a minimum, we would expect that they wouldnt travel together. the luton station website clearly states that the station is monitored by cctv. and kings cross is even 'worse' - i think i read that there are over 100 cameras there.
similarly, if its true that the leeds car had prepaid parking for 8 hours, then we can assume that they expected to be back at luton by about 3pm. (7am + 8hours), which would mean that they needed to be on a train at kings cross by about 2pm. given that they were blowing up the transit system at 9am, that seems somewhat unlikely, and entirely predictable.
the latest version of the story is that investigators cant find any evidence of timers and therefore the suiciders were willing suiciders. i dont know much about this stuff, but i do know that cell phones were used as timing devices in madrid - and no, you dont need cell reception to use the timer. if the plods are really trying to tell me that they cant find any cell phones in the wreckage at any of the sites, then i can confidently say that we'd do better calling in the keystoners. the police are lying. and its not very becoming. it strikes me that they must be feeling very fucking nervous right now as their story falls apart.
we know that the bombers all had cell phones because: a) everyone has a cell phone b)their familes were all trying to call them. and we can assume that nearly everyone else who got blown up had cell phones. and we know that bombs can be exploded via cell phone timers. so when we get told that the bombers were obviously willing suiciders cos there were no timing devices, what are we supposed to believe?
now we learn that there is some confusions about whether the bombs really were military, or if they really were home-made. actually, we really cant tell. by the end of the week they'll be telling us that its ricin on the train door-handles or some some such.
and just to prove how panicky the plods are becoming, they've floated this bizarre story that 900 squid worth of high-end perfume is involved. (you actually have to read that one to believe they actually printed it). its true that perfume has alcohol, but its not apparent why expensive perfume is more napalmic than cheap perfume. or why someone would try to use perfume to buy alcohol, when they could, you know, just buy alcohol. its also not obvious why the kid was running around buying it at the last minute. we also havent heard anything from the hospitals about, ya know, napalm type burns. as an ancillary story, they offer us "The Gaultier fragrances were in metal containers which would have splintered into lethal shrapnel in an explosion." our friend mr lindsay could have saved himself 895 quid by buying a box of nails. perhaps he could have invested it in a college fund for his kid, or otherwise left it for his pregnant wife.
for those paying attention, the perfume purchaser is the same guy who left 9 bombs unexploded in his car. there are some who argue that these were left for subsequent bombings - if so, its not obvious why they were left in the car, rather than somewhere else.
in the face of the suicide/not suicide bomber theories, some have speculated that the bombing4 actually thought that they were drug mules trying to make an easy buck. this is a reasonable theory as it goes - and could explain why they had some stuff in their bags that they werent aware of. i dont have a particular take on this theory - its as good as any, i suppose.
we also have a few classic 'conspiracy theories' working in parallel - the most famous perhaps is that 'the israelis knew', of course. a senior israeli official told the AP that bibi got a warning in advance. this was quickly denied, but seems to have reared its ugly head again in the last couple of days - with the latest version being that bibi was told 6 mins before the explosion. bibi was supposed to be speaking at a conference near where one of the bombs exploded.
similarly, giuliani was also in the liverpool station neighbourhood. his presence anywhere should give people the creeps.
further, theres a guy called peter power who is some ex-head of the police or some such who was conducting a terror exercise for some company on the morning of 7/7 - and the plan they envisaged for their terror scenario was that bombs would be going off in the tube. not surprisingly, this triggered lots of memories of the 911 norad 'training' exercises.
finally, there is a picture of the blownupbus with a van belonging to a 'controlled demolition' company also in the picture.
its hard what to make of all of these stories. my prima facie take is that:
1) the demolition van isnt important - maybe they were called in to manage the site
2) the peter powers story isnt important - im sure that he conducts terror training gigs every day of the week. (altho some have speculated that the bombers thought that they were actors in that drama)
3) giuilianis presence is always frightening.
4) i wouldnt be surprised if bibi was tipped off - which means that someone other than the four loners knew what was going down.
ummmm - what else do we know? we know that Lord Stevens wrote that he knew immediatelty that the bombers were almost certainly british born and bred. amazingly, he was correct. given that blinky and ari2 are adamant that we shouldnt prejudge criminal investigations, this was an amazing statement. similarly, we were told that they were probably from the north and had caught a mainline train into kings cross before dispersing. both these things struck me as nonsense - the fact that these statements both turned out to be correct would seem to point the finger at those who made the claims. it strikes me that there was no benefit in Stevens suggesting that the bombers were born in england other than to scare the neighbours that *everyone* is a possible terrorist. and if you were gonna commit mass murder and/or suicide, there isnt much point in restricting yourself to your immediate backyard. that stuff is complete nonsense.
what else do we know? ummmm - we know that the busbomber's bomb exploded much later that the other bombs. nobody seems to be able to able to come up with a reasonable explanation for why this happened. me either. there are reports that he was very nervous immediately beforehand - and suggestions that he realised what was going on and went searching through his bag, only to find a bomb in there which he subsequently triggered, presumably accidentally. some version of that is probably close to the truth.
theres also something weird going on with the bombs that i dont understand - we keep getting told that there were 10 pounds of bombs. we dont know if they were high grade military bombs, or if they were kitchen made - but from the first day weve been told there was 10 pounds of the stuff in each bag. now - as far as i know, the '10 pounds' refers to the weight of the stuff, and we can presumably only know how much of the stuff there was by virtue of the destruction they cause, right? somehow theres a direct correlation between the amount of damage and the quantity of the bomb ingredients, right? yet it seems that somehow we are told that the bombs were ten pounds, although we dont know if it was c4 or dynamite or ammonium nitrate - but we know there was ten pounds of the stuff? i dont geddit. it reminds me of that old gag - which is heavier - a kilo of lead or a kilo of feathers.
along the same lines, one of the odd things about this attack is that 'only' 15 people were killed per explosion. in iraq, we see some guy walk towards a line of recruits and blowing themselves up and killing 20 people - that happens when the people are apparently single file and out in the open, yet the london bombers 'only' killed 15 people each despite being in an enclosed space with people packed like sardines. were they just spazzy bomb makers? or did they try to minimise the damage? i dont quite get it.
meanwhile, we've got a few other weird things going on. firstly the cctvs on the bus werent working. secondly, we've got blair saying that the idea of conducting an inquiry is ridiculous, and weve got his senior advisors saying 'its dumb to try to work out what happened, lets just change the laws'.
and weve got the police saying 'we have these folks on cctv video at kings cross but we arent going to tell you when or where, but please send us your stills or videos so we can learn stuff. and btw, heres a nondescript still from some other place in case it reminds you of something.'
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