"The failed presidents, on the other hand, all failed not because their opponents reviled them or even because those opponents became a majority, but because their own base of political support lost basic confidence in them.It loooks as though we may have hit that moment today with the Miers' nomination - I've long thought this would happen - Bush couldn't successfully nominate a total wingnut, but he had backed himself into a corner where the wingnut base needed some red meat - this was the moment they had been banking on.
Bush's problem, therefore, is the war in Iraq. But the issue is not his Democratic opposition, nor even whether his opponents swell to become a majority. The threat to Bush's presidency will come if, and only if, his own political base breaks. By all polls, that base -- which historically has been at about 40-42 percent -- is holding. If that continues to be the case, he will be able to execute foreign policy effectively. If that base is shattered, he fails.
There has been confidence in Bush's character. But if it is determined that Bush failed in the Katrina crisis because of a failure of character, then all bets will be off.
In the four failed presidencies, it was the sudden, wrenching realization among core supporters that the president they were defending was unworthy of defense that made all the difference.
Bush's support base is forgiving, until the point that they shred. In looking at the polls, it does not appear that any shredding is occurring: His support base appears to be holding, with approval ratings around the low 40s -- removing any immediate fears of danger to his presidency. But the steadiness of that base now depends on Bush's ability to do what Wilson, Truman, Johnson and Nixon could not manage to do: give the sense that they were in control of the situation."
Here's Billmon discussing the wingnut feeding frenzy regarding the Miers' nom:
"What's happening over in Right Blogostan right now is simply amazing. It's like the political equivalent of Yugoslavia -- and Tito just died.Billmon quotes a wingnut from ConfirmThem:
Suddenly all the repressed anger and resentment at Bush and Rove is boiling over. Hordes of wing nuts are almost literally howling (in ALL CAPS) about the metric tons of shit they've put up with -- the round-the-clock pork festivals, the federal entitlement for drug companies, the congressional leadership so corrupt it would make Boss Tweed blush, the bloody quagmire in Iraq, Mike Brown, the New Deal on the Mississippi, etc. etc.
Meanwhile the hardcore Bush loyalists kinda have their backs pressed up against the wall, with big, round, white eyes -- like a bunch of guards in an asylum for the violently insane who've just realized the Thorazine shots aren't working any more.
I haven't seen anything like this -- a full-scale, knock-down, intra-party brawl that doesn't involve Democrats -- since Shrub's daddy decided he didn't want people to read his lips after all. And all because Harriet Miers gave a few bucks to Al Gore!
Once again, as after Hurricane Katrina, Rove has done what he's always vowed never to do -- he's alienated the base. And boy, are they alienated." (link)
"I guess W is as clueless as the left has said he is. I will never defend him again. I hope his approval rating drops in the 30’s."Priceless.
Today could be the day the music died - the final crack in the skulls of the stupid 40%. If the Stratfor analysis (above) is anywhere near accurate, then Bush will be at 25% by Christmas.
The base has finally realised that there man really is naked - that there's no there, there. And Bush and Rove have seen their base - and there's no there, there.
How will Rove save himself? Will Miers find a nanny problem? Will Rove start suggesting on sooper-dooper background that Hariet Miers and Ann Richards were lovers? Even if they pull Miers' nomination, can they save themselves?
The problem for Rove is that the curtain has been peeled back - once the wingnuts have realised that the President is an incompetent moron, its very difficult to unteach them that - even nominating Dobson for scotus wouldn't undo the damage.
I can't wait for the wingnuts to start donating to our Impeach Bush campaign. Oh, the joy that would bring.
update: "Hispanic groups upset with Miers pick" (link). Will anyone be supporting Dear Leader by the end of the week?
update: "Wow, the right is digging up dirt on Miers faster than the left."