boy in the UBL

i haven't really commented on the AlQ tapes from this week - mostly because i don't have a clue what to make of osama, let alone AlQ.

half the time i don't think that osama exists, and even if he does, i have no idea whose side he is on, or what his plans are, and further, i don't trust any communications that are attributed to him (or any of his fellow terrorismists).

osama turns up when it's useful to the egadministration, but then he says stuff that sounds mostly reasonable - in the now-famous words of a bunch of wrongwing hacks he sounds like john kerry, or michael moore, or cindy sheehan, or jack murtha.

anyhoo - i was kinda surprised about the Left Blogistan reaction to the latest obl tape. originally, it didn't seem (to me) to get much attention for a few days - until tweety matthews made an idiot of himself and then we saw a massive blog swarm about that. fair enough, kinda - but odd nonetheless. i kinda got the sense that a lot of people were in the space where i was and not really sure how to react - but then tweety's idiocy gave everyone an opportunity to react en masse without addressing any of the core issues.

also of note, of course, is that the media endlessly repeated the 'osama is gonna hurt us' line, without even mentioning the fact that he offered a truce. not surprising, but notable.

here are the 'facts', as we know them.
1. the USG blew up a house or two in pakistan
2. the USG claimed that zawahiri was there
3. the USG actually killed 18 innocent people
4. the USG then claimed that they had killed five of Alq's 'number twos' with nicknames like 'the bombmaker' and 'the dirty arab who raped your wife' and whatnot.
5. the UBL tape 'surfaces'
6. the zawahiri tape 'surfaces'.

as best as we can tell, we know that #1 is true, and we know that #3 is at least mostly true. we know that #2 is false, and we can take an educated guess that #4 is false. everyone seems to assume that #5 and #6 are true - is that a reasonable assumption? i'd argue that while it's possible that it is UBL on the tape, it's not unreasonable to question whether it really is him on the tape.

surely the USG wouldn't lie about such a thing, right? well - as far as i can tell, they lied about every zarqawi tape that was ever made - in fact, i'm pretty sure they actually create them. and we (nearly) know that the zawahiri/zarqawi letter was fake (hopefully emptywheel will write a post about this soon), and we (nearly) know that the '16 page memo' from OBL to zarqawi was planted. why should we assume that an OBL tape is legit? because the USG told us? please.

surely the USG doesn't engage in propaganda? no, they don't - apart from Lincoln and Rendon and fox and scotty and potus and vpotus and a few other hangers-on. lincoln received $100m for their propaganda service - and they claim to spend most of it on bribing iraqi journos at $1000 a piece, as well as some internet pop-ups and some SMS advertising. methinx there's probably some spare change lying around.

but isn't propaganda illegal? well, it's only illegal if it occurs on amsoil. this tape, as with all of them, appear on aljazz. oh yeah - and the preznit can break any law he wants.

perhaps if we put it another way - if the egadministration thuoght that it could justify faking an obl tape, do you think they would hesitate if they thought it would help them? thought not. they openly brag about doing 'whateverittakes.'

given all that, let's take a gander at some of the credulous Lefty coverage that we've seen in the last few days.

here's robert fisk:

"It's a game. Bin Laden has no intention of calling an end to his own war and nor has George Bush and nor has Tony Blair. The Bin Laden (truce) offer, almost certainly, is intended to be rejected. He wants Bush and Blair to refuse it. Then, after the next attack, will come the next audio tape. See what happens when you reject our ceasefire? We warned you."

and glenn greenwald:

"We really are at the point where a rational person simply disregards news reports that come from this Administration because of how many times those reports have just been totally false and baseless..

It really is the Boy who Cried Wolf Syndrome, and we’re seeing it manifest with our claims that Iran is an imminent danger and everywhere else. Nobody believes the U.S. anymore, not even -- perhaps especially not -- Americans. What rational person would?"

and frank rich:

"This isn't just a slippery slope... it's the truthiness of all those imminent mushroom clouds that sold the invasion of Iraq. What's remarkable is how much fictionalization plays a role in almost every national debate... we remain ready and eager to be duped by the next tall tale. It's as if the country is living in a permanent state of suspension of disbelief...

It's the power of the story that always counts first, and the selling of it that comes second. Accuracy is optional. The Frey-like genius of the right is its ability to dissemble with a straight face while simultaneously mustering the slick media machinery and expertise to push the goods. It not only has the White House propaganda operation at its disposal, but also an intricate network of P.R. outfits and fake-news outlets that are far more effective than their often hapless liberal counterparts."

all of those quotes make sense right? but none of these people doubt whether it really is OBL on the tapes. in fact, glenn specifically 'proves' his point by pointing to the osama tapes as being legit. and Rich's (brilliant) 'suspension of disbelief' is nowhere to be seen.

glenn even goes a step further:

"It is still amazes how the very people who claim so solemnly that terrorism is the overarching problem of our generation play such cynical and self-serving games with it every chance they get."

it's astonishing, no? glenn is spot on - but he can't even consider the possibility that the UBL tapes might be 'self-serving' - for some reason, despite everything, he can't even conceive that these tapes might be a part of the same program.

similarly, here's larry johnson:

"So, why is Bin Laden speaking now? He has suffered some recent setbacks. He is certainly reacting to the missile strikes last week in Pakistan that apparently killed some Al Qaeda operatives. Bin Laden is letting his followers and the world know that he is alive and ready to fight to the death."

i dont begrudge any one of these people (who i greatly respect) for making these statements - but surely we are also at a point where some skepticism is due. in fact, they are all very skeptical about everything. except this.

btw - over in this post i noted that:

"some guy on lehrer said that the binladen speech sounds like it was written in english and then translated into arabic!"

again - he wasn't being conspiratorial or anything - he was just an arabic professor or some such who kinda made the observation as a matter of fact. (he actually tried to backfill his story and spun something like 'alqaeda is really a global organisation now' or some such. ftr, a couple of others on the internets also thought his statement weird. (The Other Mike in the comments has some more thoughts )

does osama exist? whose side is he on? should we accept what 'he' says at face value? i dunno. but let's not make stoopid assumptions.

(is the title of the post funny? it seems kinda funny)