diplomacy is the only and best answer

via laura, here's former deputy secretary of defense and CSIS president John Hamre on administration strategy on Iran:

The Administration has quietly been sending senior representatives around the world with an ominous warning—“either you are with us or against us” on this coming crisis with Iran. It is important to note that the public posture is measured and careful. The President is pursuing diplomacy as the primary mode of response. But where does this go next?

Russia and China are the key unknowns in this drama. Both have a wider range of interactions with Iran and do not have our history of distrust and antipathy. Both are struggling with an irresponsible Iranian leader who is unifying European and American opposition. They know that the U.S., and now likely the European triumvirate (Germany-France-UK) will be demanding a hard stand, and they are trying to calibrate what they will have to do to balance their Iranian and Western interests.

[snip]

The primary asset we have in this battle is a diplomatic one—but that requires an absolutely unified front among the Europeans, Americans, Russians and Chinese. ...

The military options against Iran are always there, but not terribly attractive. We can’t plausibly end Iran’s nuclear program by force without a full scale invasion and overthrow of the Iranian government... Air raids are an option and the plans have been drawn. But air attacks will unify Iranian public sentiment in support of their radical young leader, and at best will simply delay their weapons program.

For the time being, diplomacy is the only and best answer to this growing crisis. ...

America will confront China and Russia with this matter and demand a firm response. We will push as hard as we can, without rupturing the unified front we will need for the next phase of this standoff. Don’t mistake the subdued nature of the public debate. This crisis is real and growing by the day." (emphasis mine.)

I disagree with some of the assumptions, but i just wanted to highlight how scary it is that we are apparently relying on Bush and Bolton and the neocons to successfully navigate a difficult diplomatic situation. What is the likelihood of them doing that successfully? about anything?

Place yer bets.