* desi: "Peak oil is like a chia pet."
cute.
* meanwhile, damien thinks there's some merit in peakoil
* to clarify, of course we're 'running out' in some sense - but the marketing of peakoil stinks.
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4 comments:
thanks ew. nice to see you
i was largely basing my observations on a documentary i saw that reminded me of the shows that we see on Fox called Countdown to Terror (or some such) about Iran's nuclear 'threat' - and it breathlessly suggested that we are three years away from the apocalypse and so on.
again, i don't pretend to know a lot about peak oil so i'm happy to defer to the judgement of you and others.
another element of the 'marketing' is simply the name Peak Oil (it reminds me of Intelligent Design) which conjurs up images of 'tipping points' and comments like when you say "suddenly not have enough supply". the only way it can happen suddenly is if all of the companies are majorly lying about their reserves (which they may well be).
oilcompanies valuations are based on current and potential reserves - by the price of oil - and that is why i'm suspect about the marketing of PeakOil.
don't get me wrong - i'd be elated if PeakOil (or anything else) leads to a massive shift away from oil dependence - in fact, i wish we'd do that anyway, even if the oil supply was unlimited. i'd argue that the biggest crime of bushco (and lots of others, including our own hack of a leader) is ignoring global warming.
They bring out the peak oil business on special occasions, such as the administration's failure to protect the nation's own manufacturing base from the foreign market. Alla sudden Bush is "hey detroit, make something more relevant, I'm not bailing your asses out" No one even asked the crazy bastard for a bailout.
it's the voices in his head again - he can't tell if it's god or karl, or sumthink he wuz just rememberin
ew - yeah, i kinda get it - but ideas like "total world demand equal 11 barrels and total world production equal 9 barrels" don't really make sense to an economist - because there's always a price element in the mix.
e.g. if oil was back down at $20/barrel, we would probably consume more of it.
i appreciate that oil is a different type of product in that it literally runs most economies, and it is also famously inelastic - and i accept that the transition away from oil will be difficult - lets hope the transition happens before the crunch comes - because if we wait that long, it'll just be rearranging deckchairs
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