State = Innocent, Neocons & OVP = Bad

* when clemons ran the story that armitage is in Fitz' 'bulls-eye', i wrote:

This story will drive everyone mad - because everyone is trying to fit the facts around two dodgy theses:
a) that there is a strong dividing line between the eurofag lefties at State and the neocons / OVP
b) that Plame was outed to GetWilson

Re the first point, expanding it out a bit for clarification, not only do i see a fuzzy line between State and OVP et al, but also that what is known as "State" is anything but a monolithic whole (even once you strip out Bolton et al). I have a lot of trouble with analyses that assume these battles are Dept vs Dept - i've tussled with emptywheel about this before - see here or here

example quotes:

"emptywheel.... is correct to highlight that there are two different games in town, but incorrect, IMO, to suggest that the real game is State vs Neocon, and incorrect to put grossman and armitage (and even colin!) in the presumed 'Powell ring'."

and

" i think the purported 'realist vs neocon' battle is largely overblown. similarly, i think the 'State=Realist' meme can also be very misleading."

the other side of the same coin is that Left Blogistan basically assumes State = Good, Innocent in L'Affaire Plame, and that Neocons & OVP = Bad. this is also wrong, and misleading at best. (similarly, one of the other memes that drives me crazy is 'loyalty' - armitage is always 'fiercely loyal', for example. so is Preznit Blinky)

In any case, over at EW's place, Jeff has been making the case today (start here and read down for his comments) that there actually was a lotta daylight within what is presumed to be 'State' (Wilson, Powell, Armitage, Scowcroft, Grossman etc). Jeff:

"I was led to reread Kristof's original 5-6-03 column. If you haven't read it in a while, I highly recommend it, in light of what we've learned recently, and especially because it strongly supports my claim that Team Powell had reason to feel hostile toward Wilson, and that that might help explain Armitage's leaks. In fact, not only is the top of the State Department much more a focus than OVP, Powell and State are criticized as much if not more than President Bush for ignoring the doubts about the Niger intelligence in the runup to the war. OVP plays a rather minor role here, especially as compared with the role it would play subsequently."

And Jeff is correct - read kristoff. (Jeff does make the same mistake however, by presuming that Wilson & Grossman are on the same team).

I'm sure there is a faction vs faction fight going on here with plamegate - but i really dont think we have a clue what is really going on - and i'm pretty sure that much of the confusion is based on the fact that people on both sides don't even know who the factions are, or what the motivations are.

as i wrote last week:

"i also don't think leftblogistan is right about their take on the story (which seems remarkably narrow). remarkably, despite their record, i even suspect that some elements of rightblogistan might not be entirely wrong about their interpretation (although i have no clues as to which parts might be accurate). I'm also pretty sure that our particular version of the story is incomplete too. i wonder if we'll ever know."

let's hope fitz has been able to sort it all out (he's about the only person in this whole mess who i presume to be clean)

update: edited for clarification as per EW's observations in the comments