20 in the House and 3 in the senate

apparently tis the season to be prognosticating.

i was watching cavuto yesterday. yuk. and they were talking about some financial market or other (oil, methinks) and i was struck by the fact that all the pundits were saying things that 'outlier' positions. in other words - none of the people on the show predicted what the market was predicting. aparently that's the price of entry to a pundit gig.

as you know, over the last month, i've been highlighting the difference in the election prognostication between the betting markets and the punditocracy. given my background in gambling, i prefer to put my faith in the markets.

atrios beat me to it:

Oh, well, I guess it's about time to pull some numbers out of the air. If I'm right you can all proclaim me a genius and if I'm wrong you can call me an idiot. But, yes, the pulled from nowhere numbers are: Dems +18 in the House, with the possibility of an orgy of party switching on both sides making the final outcome in the House uncertain.

Senate: Dems +4.

that's what the markets are saying. a thin House win, and a thin but solid Senate loss. i'd stretch it out a bit - my bet is 20 in the House and 3 in the senate.

let's hope charlie cook is right.