No one disputes that the terrorists have in the past shown shrewd political judgment. For example, many believe that Jose Maria Aznar's governing Popular Party lost the Spanish elections because voters, frightened by the Madrid bombings three days earlier, fled to the Socialists who had promised to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq.

While the bombings had an impact, pre-election polls had shown the PP's popularity slipping badly and their chances of staying in power very much in doubt. But if even Bush administration officials can believe (as they said) that al Qaida "cooked the books" in the Spanish elections, why not the terrorists themselves?

Observers in Rome argue that al Qaida may feel that a terrorist attack in Italy would create political chaos and finish off Berlusconi. And this, the observers say, may be no more than a dress rehearsal for a well-timed action in the United States before the presidential elections in November.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040718-093832-7718r