i prefer to follow the $ than poll numbers anyway (generally) - cos mkts seem to mean more than mere questions, cos peeps have to put their munny where their mouth is and all that. (even tho the mkts are prolly based in part on polls).
(ftr-'likely voters' seems to be a risky metric)
tradesports is the only mkt i look at - not for any reason, but i assume the mkts are largely efficient. anyways, tradesports has bush at 60% again.
praps curiously - tradesports has 7 states where bush is within the 40%-60% range: florida 43=60% (25 elec-college votes), nevada @ 60% (4 votes), wisc @ 57% (11 votes), iowa @ 42% (7 votes), newhamp @ 42% (4 votes), newmex@ 43% (5 votes), penn @ 42%, (23 votes)
(the 40-60 range doesnt mean anything - but is just indicative, of course)
fyi - this from joshmarshall "Pretty much everyone in both parties has been discounting the results of the Time poll giving President Bush a ten point lead coming out of the convention -- for various reasons having to do with the methodology of the poll and two other polls giving a different result.
But now, according to pollingreport.com at least, Newsweek has a poll out with almost identical numbers: Bush 54%, Kerry 43%." sep4 http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_08_29.php#003429
heres a good reason why polls are stoopid: "The number of Americans who believe the war in Iraq was a mistake dropped 10 points since the last full week of August -- from 48 percent to 38 percent." or why/how people are stupid.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adam
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2004 00:23:56 -0400
To:
Subject: Bounce, bounce...?
> Now I'm confused...(and a bit more optimistic?)
>
> Latest CNN/USA Today/Gallop poll shows bush with just a 2 percent post
> convention bounce.
> http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html
>
> ...although still leading 52% to Kerry's 45%...but much better than the 11%
> bounce, 12% spread reported elsewhere...
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: luke@lukeryland.com [mailto:luke@lukeryland.com]
> Sent: Monday, September 06, 2004 9:03 PM
> To: mich
> Subject: scared yet?
>
>
> * "White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card said yesterday that President Bush
> views America as a ''10-year-old child" in need of the sort of protection
> provided by a parent." and "I know as a parent I would sacrifice all for my
> children."
> http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/09/02/card_says_bush_sees_us
> _as_a_child_needing_a_parent/
>
> * is mccain suffering from patty hearst syndrome?
>
> * "GEORGE W Bush snorted cocaine at Camp David, a new book claims."
> http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/allnews/tm_objectid=14609301&method=full&siteid
> =50143&headline=bush--took-cocaine-at-camp-david--name_page.html
>
> * " the Pentagon has ordered an official investigation into the awards of
> the Democratic senator's five Vietnam War decorations."
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/09/05/wus05.xml&sS
> heet=/news/2004/09/05/ixworld.html
>
> * "According to the Miami Daily Business Review, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R)
> appointee at the Broward County Board of Elections hired a law firm headed
> by two close cronies of President Bush to fight any charges against it
> during the 2004 election."
> http://www.misleader.org/daily_mislead/Read.asp?fn=df09022004.html
>
> * "About 1,100 U.S. soldiers and Marines were wounded in Iraq during August,
> by far the highest combat injury toll for any month since the war began"
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A62425-2004Sep4?language=printer
>
> * If any question why we died Tell them, because our fathers lied.
>
> * interesting article by msdowd
> http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/opinion/05dowd.html?hp - at least partly
> explaining 43's odd comments about german democracy in 1946 which i didnt
> understand at the time. and am still not much clearer. and i certainly didnt
> understand this bit "Maybe that same person's still around, writing
> editorials" and still dont. btw - i finally saw dowd on thedailyshow and she
> wasnt horrible.
>
> * i adopted 10 baby rabbits, one got hawked. but then 2 went awol - 43
> style. i dunno where their corpses are :-( today i saw another one the
> wrong side o' the fence. i dunno how it escaped. quite a sight me running
> around in blunnies and trackies trying to deny its liberties. security is
> more important than freedom anyways. as a first time parent, id prolly give
> myself 7/10. so far.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> ____
> four more tears. four more tears.
> wotisitgood4.blogspot.com
>
>
>
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