the israeli attacks are retribution

* imagine if the 19 hijackers were women, rather than arabs. war on women? dead or alive? smoke em out?

* the Green party here is getting about 12% - up from 5% 4 years ago. and better than the previously disparaged hopes the leader of getting 10% (and in the face of a savage scare attack on 'minor' parties by murdoch. the previous 'third' party - the Democrats have fallen from 7% to 5% (despite expectations that they'd fall apart completely) - ie the greens are gaining from the major parties, forcing the major parties to co-opt the policies of the greens. like nader said to kerry - 'all these votes are yours - heres the platform' (its true the runoff/contingent voting allows that to occur, visavis the us)

* 2 bodies, one unheaded, have turned up in iraq. i wonder if they were the ozzies whoe were recently reported to be hostaged, altho the story disappeared, purportedly presumed 2 b a hoax.

* dave mcgowan does a 911 anniversary bit - its long - but worth a read as always. praps with a lager. or a 6pack. http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr67.html

* are there really the exact right amount of people at the margin to keep the election race 'extremely close' for more than a year?

* 4 days till my peak period for an attack here in oz. ill prolly look like an idiot. thats ok. i havent told anyone cept u 4. and my fam. but if ive made my case, then it might help to pass on the idea that maybe it makes sense not to be flying in or around syd on friday. who knows what we'll see before nov2, or even inauguration. i havent seen anything recently to cause me to increase my concern levels about an ozattack - but the logic still stands. (if we see tomscheiffer doing something odd this week then we should all get nervous.) even if its as simple as 'alq did madrid. alq can do oz'. we also can also probably say 'whoever did madrid mite also do oz' (unless madrid was spanishfascista). beyond that we can only really point to some secondary, unsatisfactory 'evidence' - murdock pushing the election out this far (it was 'sposed' to be in aug), howard calling the election when he was in trouble (behind) after the latest kidsoverboard thing, the us election thingy being just a few weeks away, and a few odd media stories. and odd media omissions. in summary, theres not much supporting evidence.

even if im wrong about the predictions re the ozelection, it shouldnt reflect on the general threat level of course.

* the main thing that i can see against an oz attack is that its too early to make a serious am election impact. our memories are so short. madrid seems like a lifetime ago - not 6 months. beslam seems forever ago. the flipside to this point is that if they wanna imprint something on the collective memory, its gonna have to be something spectacular. greater than or equal to 911.

* 'hopefully' zarq gets bizzy this week in iraq - hopefully pointing to the fact that he is too bizzy to pull off an attack here.

* on the other hand, if theres any doubt that the jihadmin would try an october surprise, if they did it in oz, then they could avoid much of the downside of a domestic attack - it wouldnt draw the immediate 'octsurp' doubters and it wouldnt destroy any american lives. or cities. again, a simple madrid-type attack wont have the requisite effect.




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