Saturday, November 13, 2004

the internet broke it

* "On average, Bush made a gain of 4.15 percent when the reported vote was tallied in all sixteen states included in the reported 4 p.m. exit polling conducted by the National Election Pool.
Former MIT mathematics professor Anick reasons that there are four possible causes of the “Bush gains.” (1) Significantly greater lying or refusal to speak to pollsters in Bush voters versus Kerry voters; (2) Consistent/systematic errors in weighting demographic groups; (3) A surge of Bush voters after 4 p.m., in all states; (4) Systematic tampering/hacking of reported vote totals, in Bush’s favor."
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=405

* let me repeat the bit that everyone seems to be missing on this vfraud issue - the exit polling was only done on election day - so the reported 7% exit vs actual gap in florida actually significant understates the problem - because 30% of floridians had voted by sunday - 51-43 to jonk. any analysis of the exit polls without considering the early votes is completely bunk.

* The Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll (Oct. 27-30) tells us that 16% had voted early nationally - bush 46%, jonk 48% - with another 8% expecting to vote early. itd be nice to have the state level data - but it seems to point to the NEP exit polls being 'wrong' by a greater margin than the analysis that is being done. http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=232

* any article that blames the internet for votergate without mentioning that nader is trying to get a recount is bunk. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/11/10/internet_buzz_on_vote_fraud_is_dismissed?pg=full

* "An audiotape purportedly made by al-Qaida-linked terror suspect Abu Musab al-Zarqawi encouraged his fighters in Fallujah and said victory was near. The tape surfaced Friday on an Internet site known as a clearinghouse for militant Muslim comment. Its authenticity could not be confirmed. The voice on the tape sounded like that on earlier tapes attributed to al-Zarqawi." http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4611638,00.html

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Four more years. Seriously.
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1 comment:

Michael said...

this blog rocks. you rock. keep rockin.