rom: luke@lukeryland.com [Save Address] [Block Sender] [Report Spam]

To: talk@talkingpointsmemo.com
CC:
Subject: Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll
Date: Mon, 08 Nov 2004 13:41:55 +1000

Gday Josh, greetings from Oz.

longtime fan. thanks.

on Nov1 you wrote:
"According to Gallup's mega-final-ultra poll out Sunday evening,
30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, either
through early voting or by absentee. Of those who have already voted,
Kerry leads President Bush 51% to 43%" and you asked for an
explanation as to why this didnt sum to 100%. Did you ever find out?
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_31.php#003885

Seems to me these Gallup results are interesting (again) given the
discussion about the NEP exit polls being 'wrong'. The NEP polls were
only conducted on Election Day. As you know, there has been a lot of
discussion about the margin of error on those polls, but that
discussion seems to ignore the fact that Bush was already behind by 8
points with just two thirds of the race left to run - ie Bush needed
to beat Kerry (roughly) 54/46 on the Tuesday. The early Florida
exitpolls had Kerry leading 51/48 - which means they were out by 6%,
given that Gallups results were also accurate.

Cheers

Luke


________________________________________________________________________________
Four more years. Seriously.
wotisitgood4.blogspot.com