mystery pollster

this also went to mysterypollster:

Mark - another thing when considering the "Reluctant Bush Responder" issue is that even though we see the average WPE of -6.5, we have to remember that in fully one quarter of precincts, there was WPE>5 for Bush. (p34)

surprisingly, only 25% of precincts were within plus or minus 5 percentage points.

in fact, if you look at the table on p42, an astonishing 28% of precincts actually had WPE <-15. and the completion rate in those precincts was just 2 points below the average (and the miss rate was 2 points higher anyway).

to take it a step further, for every category, the refusal rate is higher when the result is +bush - ie the refusal rate for "WPE > 15" is higher than "WPE > -15" - and the same pattern exists throughout the table.

that all seems to refute the Reluctant Repub hypothesis.

if anyone has any insight to explain how 28% of precincts actually had WPE <-15, id love to hear.