july army recruiting bonanza

* the latest army recruiting numbers are out - of course, its difficult to know whether they hit their targets or not, becuase its very difficult to ascertain, in advance, what the target is. they always seem to back-announce it. here's the lede from the AP:

"For July, the Army recruited 8,085 new soldiers, 109 percent of its goal of 7,450."

actually, i'm kidding, the above is not the lede, it is actually the seventh paragraph. the actual lede is:

The active-duty Army hit its recruiting target in July for a second straight month, but the summertime rebound may not be enough to make up for a long-term shortfall

funny huh?

of course, we'd be hard pressed to find a more Repug-friendly outlet than the AP, and yet, after months of stories about recruiting woes, and orwellian follow-the-bouncing-quotas, they bury the news that they've beat quota by 9% in the 7th paragraph..

confused? me too. you'd think they'd be shouting from the rooftops that they've turned the corner and we are now gonna win the war, and its proof that americans are really stepping up to the plate, and that cindy sheehan is an aberration and all that jazz.

actually, the story gets curiouser, much curiouser.

you might remember the shenanigans in May:

"Early last month, the Army, with no public notice, lowered its long-stated May goal to 6,700 recruits from 8,050... it made more sense to shift some of that quota to the summer months, traditionally a better season for recruiters to attract new high school graduates."

that is, they took 1,350 out of the May budget, and re-allocated the 1,350 across June, July, August and September. (the financial year runs october to september)

now, lets go back to a July 11 Bloomberg article discussing the June numbers:

"To make that goal now, the service needs almost 33,000 recruits in the next three months. Its initial goal for these months was 23,715: 6,100 recruits in July, 9,250 in August and 8,365 in September."

and lets compare that to the latest AP article discussing the July numbers:

"For July, the Army recruited 8,085 new soldiers, 109 percent of its goal of 7,450."

Snazzy, no? the July quota jumped by 1,350, with nary a mention. The July recruiting number was actually 32% *above* the initial target.

as i've discussed, the quota shift of 1,350 from May was originally to be spread over June, July, August and September - although we weren't told how that was to be allocated. It now appears that there was a recruiting boom in July, and they (presumably retrospectively) shoved the entire 1,350 into the July budget.

Now, if you remember at the top of the post, I was surprised that the AP led with "the Army hit its recruiting target in July", and that we didnt learn that they beat their target by 9% until the 7th paragraph. My point was that it almost looked as though they were trying to hide the good news - and that was before i had realised that they had bumped up the base line.

Odd, no?

Remember the ridicule the DoD received for lowering the bar in May? Why wouldn't they play the opposite side of that coin? It wouldn't take a propaganda genius to write the press release:

"Recruiting is booming: we beat our initial quota by 32%. Recruiting is so strong that we decided to increase the quota by 22%, and we *still* beat our target by 9%. (September 11th) Americans really believe in our noble cause to help spread freedom around the world and help defend America against evil-doers.

With the drafting of the new constitution in Iraq, and the upcoming elections, Americans can see the progress we are making, and want to be a part of it. (September 11th) We've seen a remarkable turnaround in army recruiting - in just the last 3 months we have gone from being 40% below our initial projections, to being 32% above our target.

These recruiting numbers demonstrate that 'real' (September 11th) Americans understand the nature of our struggle and that the naysayers in the Liberal Media dont represent the Heartland."

the other thing is, if we assume that the 32% premium isnt an aberration, and we see the same pattern for the next 2 months, then the total annual recruitment will be 78,500 - vs a target of 80,000. - and with serious positive momentum moving into the next financial year, rather than all the doom and gloom we are hearing at the moment. (i dont think this will happen - but the administration is famous for putting lipstick on effluent and calling it an ice-cream sundae)

the question then: why is the administration hiding something that could be painted as good news? we know they love to play the momentum game - and good recruiting publicity is likely to beget more recruiting, and good recruiting could also be painted as a proxy for a bunch of other things - not least support for the president and support for iraq, and support for handing out democracy-chits around the planet and all that jazz.

i havent got a clue. the only thing i can think of (and its certainly very tenuous) is that they are about to call for a draft, and they cant do that when theres good recruiting news around. its not a very convincing argument.

any ideas?

________

update - another thing i noticed is that the July recruiting numbers hardly hit the news at all. i couldnt find an article in the nyt, and most of the others simply carried a wire piece (usually AP) if anything at all)