It’s not hard to understand Iran.

Ian Welsh at Bopnews:

"It’s not hard to understand Iran.

Principle 1: Iran wants its neighbours to not be a threat. The Iraq/Iran war was WWI trench warfare, complete with mustard gas and human wave attacks. It destroyed an entire generation of young Iranian men. So, the countries nearest to it have to either be unable to attack, or have to not want to attack Iran.

Principle 2: Iran needs a deterrent against the US and other great powers. The US gave Saddam the greenlight to attack Iran, costing it an entire generation of its young men. It supplied Iraq with weapons and money, including WMD. The US then attacked Iraq, after declaring Iraq part of the “Axis of Evil” along with... Iran. The US attack on Iraq was clearly not because Iraq had WMD, because by the time the US attacked Iraq it had no WMD.

The US is either:
1) rational and willing to invade countries for reasons that may apply to Iran;
2) it is irrational and you can’t be sure who the hell it will attack;
3) or it is gullible and got played by Iran, in which case someone else (like, say, the Israelis), could play it and trick it into attacking Iran. No matter what way you look at it, that means that Iran needs to be able to make any US attack unthinkable.

Principle 3: The Mullahs intend to stay in charge. Thanks very much for your interest in the infidel idea of liberal democracy.

Really, almost everything else is a corollary of these three rules. Iran is forging closer ties to China because China will supply it with military equipment and diplomatic clout without trying to interfere with its internal affairs. Iran is taking steps towards nuclear weapons because that will make attacking it nearly unthinkable. Iran is doing its best to ensure that Shi’a come to power in Iraq to make sure Iraq never attacks Iran again. Iran is pushing its influence into Afghanistan to make it hard to use Afghanistan as a base for attacks against Iran. Etc…"

(reprinted in full)