Thursday, July 06, 2006

a Presidency that is coming apart

I havent yet read Sy Hersh's latest. Steve Soto interviewed sam gardiner about it:

I asked Gardiner about some of Hersh's major points and the sources Hersh uses inside the Pentagon:

Sy's sources inside the Pentagon could not be better.

I suggested to Gardiner that it appears that Bush would opt for an air campaign supported by Special Forces, at Cheney’s urging.

He might move for the military option, but this article could very well change things. The senior leadership is now on the record with their opposition. It would be politically very dangerous for him to proceed now that this is out in the public.

Gardiner's assessments of the significance of this story:

This has to be seen as a watershed event. The military have challenged the White House. It was more subtle than MacArthur in Korea, but still it is a major challenge. They have been stage props for photo ops for too long; they are saying enough is enough.

I asked Gardiner to update his prediction of the odds of an attack before November, and what he thinks about those chances after the election:

About 4 in 10 before November.
As for after that, I have the sense of a Presidency that is coming apart. The White House has made the case that you can't challenge the President on National Security because of the supposed unusual circumstances of the time. In less than a week, that notion has been broken by the Supreme Court. Now the military have broken it.

And Gardiner then concluded with this:

I think he is going to have trouble doing anything.


Kathleen said...

Thank God,

Finally, people are saying, The Emporer has no brains.

lukery said...

40% chance.