Tuesday, October 17, 2006

what will the October Surprise be?

* following up on Damien's interest in Susan Lindauer, Madsen has a long piece on her:
"Lindauer claims that from August 1996 to the outbreak of the Iraq war, she served as a back channel intermediary with the Iraqi Mission to the UN in New York and was constantly supervised by her handlers in the CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). In March 2004, Lindauer was arrested by the FBI at her Takoma Park, Maryland home and charged with acting as an unregistered agent for the Iraqi government from October 1999 to February 2004 and engaging in illegal financial transactions with the Iraqis. Federal prosecutors also charged Lindauer with meeting Iraqi intelligence agents during a 2002 trip to Baghdad, including a meeting at the Al Rashid Hotel. Lindauer claims that she was one of three CIA assets who were covering the Iraqi Mission to the UN. She said she and the other two assets, who were also being run by the FBI, were charged with being agents for Iraq.

From the beginning, the government's case against Lindauer was unique. In his decision ordering Lindauer's release from federal custody, Judge Michael Mukasey of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan ruled that the government could not force Lindauer to take psychotropic drugs in order for her to stand trial in the case. In in a rare departure, Mukasey commented on the government's case against Lindauer before the trial. He stated, "There is no indication that Lindauer ever came close to influencing anyone or could have." The Justice Department maintained that Lindauer attempted to influence her cousin to prevent a U.S. military attack on Iraq. Lindauer's second cousin is none other than Andrew Card, who served as George W. Bush's Chief of Staff and who is a major source for Bob Woodward's revealing book about the Bush march to war, State of Denial. Lindauer's father is John Lindauer, the 1998 GOP candidate for governor of Alaska, who was defeated by Tony Knowles"

* Miguel:
"BTW, we are at Oct. 16, and no October Surprise has yet surfaced.

We know it's coming; any bets as to what the October Surprise will be this year?"
anyone? i'd settle for anything that isn't a new war. saddam's verdict is going to be November 5. I don't think that will do much to bump the polls, but it might give the repugs an 'excuse' to steal the election.

update: here's a few from EW's place:
Don't discount the usual Rovian tactics:

Military exercises leading to "precision pinpoint bombing" of "Iranian nuclear weapons facilities" (which will later turn out to be apartment buildings full of women, children and elderly men but that news won't come out until after the election so who cares?)

Another Osama videotape in which he "supports the Democrats"

Orange alert moves to red alert within 10 days before election

Major scary terror plot foiled three days before election (consisting of two actual clueless young Muslim males and 18 agent-provocateurs) whose vaporous nature is revealed only after the voting so who cares?

Gasoline prices hit historic low on Nov. 4th

As Karl would say, success is in the details. And he's got 'em covered.


Simon said...

saddam's verdict is going to be November 5. I don't think that will do much to bump the polls, but it might give the repugs an 'excuse' to steal the election.

That's assuming that he's going to be found to be guilt of the charges against him of course...

lukery said...

simon - true. after all the judge-shopping they did, i'd be surprised if he wasnt found guilty

calipendence said...

Perhaps they've got something rigged where Saddam will have done a "plea bargain" to avoid the death sentence and provide info on "the whereabouts of Bin Laden". (Even of course none of this is true and they just have Bin Laden holed up someplace). Then they'll be able to rationalize the Saddam connected to Al Queda thing as well as having caught Saddam.

We need to have someone prepared to ask the right questions to expose such a fabricated even if they try to stage it with the right pointed questions.

calipendence said...

Caught Bin Laden I meant of course, since they already have Saddam...

Simon said...

after all the judge-shopping they did, i'd be surprised if he wasnt found guilty

If Saddam dies the judges probably die too. Funny old world - is there a different concept of justice over there..?

lukery said...

calipendence - unlikely! but anything is possible.

simon - the idea of justice seems to be screwy everywhere these days.

Simon said...


Speaking of justice, is this to be Saddam's legacy?



(From here)

Simon said...

Blimey - just read that through:

From the world's oversupply of terrorists to its paucity of energy supplies, the current deformations of the Middle East promise a worsening, not an improving, situation. In a region where only the worst aspects of nationalism ever took hold and where the most debased aspects of religion threaten to dominate a disappointed faith, the U.S., its allies and, above all, our armed forces can look for crises without end. While Iraq may provide a counterexample of hope — if we do not quit its soil prematurely — the rest of this vast region offers worsening problems on almost every front.

Armed Forces Journal???

lukery said...

is this to be Saddam's legacy?

or the legacy of Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, Robert Loewenberg, Jonathan Torop, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser.

Miguel said...

The problem with the October Surprise is that it is very hard to anticipate. Most people I knew guessed the '04 October Surprise would be Bin Laden's head on a silver platter. Well, we got Bin Laden alright- but a very healthy and very alive Bin Laden (at least it LOOKED like Bin Laden) and supposedly this played right into the GOP playbook (though anyone with any sense would think it should have worked against the Clown Prince).

I think a strike against Iran is unlikely as a Surprise, because it would open Bush up to the charge of putting Americans at risk for political purposes. Much more likely is another "terror alert"- yet, part of me thinks that the public is growing numb to that.

Or maybe this year the surprise is- there is no surprise!

Don said...

Simon: looking at the After map, one decidedly twisted detail jumped out at me.

On a map where the author redraws borders all over the place leaving only Oman unscathed, carves 3 entirely new nations (Kurdistan, Baluchistan, and the Islamic Sacred State, not counting divided Iraq) out of their neighbours, landlocks Syria, and even takes Israel back to their pre-'67 borders, he leaves the West Bank untouched, status undetermined, and is listed among the "losers". (presumably Gaza's been returned to Egypt) The Balochs and Kurds get a nation as do fundamentalist Muslims (like any of that'll happen in reality), while the Saudis lose the sacred cities of Mecca and Medina and almost all of their waterway access, but the Palestinian issue can't be resolved even in his fantasy Middle East?! Or would that have been just too much?

Still, it's an interesting read. It seems to have been published in June. Looking around, there seems to be at least some even-handed, rational thought (here for example). Either the AFJ isn't under the DoD's thumb or the censors haven't gotten to them yet.

Don said...

On thread, my half-assed, caffeine-fueled theory here: in the next few weeks, I suspect the whack jobs'll hit Korea.

lukery said...

miguel: "because it would open Bush up to the charge of putting Americans at risk for political purposes"
they proudly say that they are holding off on making any changes to the iraq plan until after the election

lukery said...

don - interesting about the west bank. nice catch.

Kathleen said...

For those of us who think Dopey and Darth were complicit in 9/11 in New York where all those liberal Jews live, why not another "terrorist" attack in that other place they don't like much, Massachusettes? We all have to die some day, why not for a good cause, their perpetual power? 9/11 sure turned a lot of liberals in New York into Repugs, or Repugs lite, it could transform that other liberal bastion too.

Color me cynical, but it sure worked for them the first time.

calipendence said...


The problem with another terrorist attack is that Miguel's logic also applies there. Rove wouldn't later be able to acknowledge that they knew it was going to happen and did nothing to stop it. That would basically be complete proof for the LIHOP conspiracy theorists out there. This October surprise has to be something that Republicans can't be later faulted for their own secrecy about it in planning it in advance, which kind of leaves out things that need immediate emergency attention, like wars and terrorist attacks. I'm thinking it might be something like their own rendition of a single health player insurance program (with companies like GM backing them, who obviously want to get rid of health insurance liabilities to enable them to compete better with foreign auto manufacturers). Then they can say that they rather than the Democrats are the ones that have the plan to solve health insurace problems. Perhaps other areas that Dems think they have a better solution and the Republicans throw a last minute curve ball. Another like this might be some newer approach to solving immigration issues.

«—U®Anu§—» said...

Heaven forbid, they could lie and say they plan to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan by year's end. That'd get them everything they want in the election--then they could say they'd changed their minds. That won't happen. But it's a better idea than starting a new war.

God knows they're doing everything they can think of to cause a retaliatory nuclear strike on the U.S., and if they can make that happen before election day, it's in the bag.

Kathleen said...

With the newly enacted Military Commissions Act and the end of Posse Commitatus, they're not going to have to bother to lie. He can just declare martial law and lock any big mouth questioners away, forever to be torured at will for daring to question his will. What's to stop them? Obviously, he doesn't give a good goddamn what we think.

«—U®Anu§—» said...

The surprise is, the election is already hopelessly rigged. So, not to worry. But, vote anyway--listening to people's comments while standing in line is always fun. People in my hometown took the thoughtful approach last time: "ah know who AH'M a-votin' fer," I heard many people say (the republicans, because they didn't want to see a buncha queers with wedding rings). That's some cuttin' edge bullshit.