Thursday, February 01, 2007

Iran triggers

* josh:
"When the bogus 'Iran incident' happens that becomes the predicate for a military attack on Iran, what will it look like? Let's try to sketch it out in advance. Will it be a real incident in Iraq for which the Iranians are blamed? Or will it be a complete bogus incident, something that never happened, that they're blamed for? Will we receive the news in manufactured evidence? Or will it all come through unnamed leaks and Richard Perle appearances on CNN?

Some key requirements occur to me.

1. Despite being fake, the incident must seem reasonably credible.

2. It must appear serious enough that discounting its importance or questioning its veracity appears the height of unseriousness.

3. It must place the majority of us in the odd and unexpected position of granting to President Bush the unfettered discretion to launch a war against Iran at the time and place of his choosing, despite our desire that he start it right now.

Any other requirements?"

* meanwhile, digby thinks this might be designed to trigger a response:
"The Air Force is preparing for an expanded role in Iraq that could include aggressive new tactics designed to deter Iranian assistance to Iraqi militants, senior Pentagon officials said.

The efforts could include more forceful patrols by Air Force and Navy fighter planes along the Iran-Iraq border to counter the smuggling of bomb supplies from Iran, a senior Pentagon official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing future military plans.

Such missions also could position the Air Force to strike suspected bomb suppliers inside Iraq to deter Iranian agents that U.S. officials say are assisting Iraqi militias, outside military experts said"
* and larisa wonders if it'll be the dossier:
"The new "dossier" (almost gives it a sort of intrigue) is being leaked first in order to make the Bush administration appear to be concerned on what course of action they should take in Iran, to make Cheney seem concerned about "not having a plan." This is called plausible denial so when Cheney finally presents his scribbles as intelligence, it will be less likely to be seen as propaganda (hey, they did not want to have to release this). But since the Bush administration and their bastard child of a news service apparently have not caught on that we - the public- has caught on, this will be very interesting to watch.

Equally as interesting is that Bush-Cheney have already approved leaks to the MSM on this very topic."

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