20 in the House and 3 in the senate

apparently tis the season to be prognosticating.

i was watching cavuto yesterday. yuk. and they were talking about some financial market or other (oil, methinks) and i was struck by the fact that all the pundits were saying things that 'outlier' positions. in other words - none of the people on the show predicted what the market was predicting. aparently that's the price of entry to a pundit gig.

as you know, over the last month, i've been highlighting the difference in the election prognostication between the betting markets and the punditocracy. given my background in gambling, i prefer to put my faith in the markets.

atrios beat me to it:

Oh, well, I guess it's about time to pull some numbers out of the air. If I'm right you can all proclaim me a genius and if I'm wrong you can call me an idiot. But, yes, the pulled from nowhere numbers are: Dems +18 in the House, with the possibility of an orgy of party switching on both sides making the final outcome in the House uncertain.

Senate: Dems +4.

that's what the markets are saying. a thin House win, and a thin but solid Senate loss. i'd stretch it out a bit - my bet is 20 in the House and 3 in the senate.

let's hope charlie cook is right.

the 'debate' about gayness is over

if i was a pro-gay advocate who didnt give a damn about iraqis (and i'm only half of that, and i'm not suggesting that any such people exist) i'd be over the moon right now.

after this election, can anyone imagine that homophobia will ever be an issue ever again?

'thanks' to iraq and george bush, it appears that the 'debate' about gayness is over. probably abortion too.

the president of Kurdistan

* i don't know my regional politics all that well - but is there something weird about Judy Miller's article being called "Kurdistan"? and she calls Massoud Barzani, "the president of Kurdistan"
seems weird to me.

* lehrer: 'pakistan 'raided' a school... killing 80 people... hitting it with 5 missiles...'
i saw the 'raid' language elsewhere.

teh "appeasement" of Tehran by the U.S

* raimondo:

"We didn't just invade Iraq – we invaded the Middle East, and the war that has engulfed Saddam Hussein's former dominion cannot be contained within its borders. War doesn't respect national boundaries, and tends inevitably to spill over such artificial barriers and spread like wildfire. And that wildfire will eventually consume the entire region – unless we act to stop the next war before it starts.

While the antiwar movement is protesting against the war in Iraq, the War Party is already well into the planning of the next war. Their target is Iran, and their method is remarkably similar to the scenario played out in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. First we have the issue of "weapons of mass destruction," specifically nukes, which Tehran is said to be developing in defiance of the international community and Iran's treaty obligations.
[]
It is a mistake to look at Iraq in isolation, because then the invasion doesn't make any sense. Why did we go to war with Iraq? This question vexes the war's critics, because they aren't looking at the War Party's plans for the entire region. Their goal is to "transform" the Middle East, to change the political culture of the region from above, so to speak: that is, at gunpoint. If, somehow, the countries of the Middle East were turned, overnight, into democracies, they would become – in theory – less aggressive, since democracies are supposedly inherently peaceful.

And yet the two model democracies of the West, Britain and the U.S., hardly conform to this rule. The British carved out a vast empire, and did not always employ sweet reason in attaining it: we inherited the imperial mantle, and are sinking slowly under the sheer weight of it.

The great irony of our war of "liberation" is that the longer and harder we wage it, the less free we become: the more we insist on "exporting" democracy to foreign lands, the less democratic we become. The reason is because war is the health of the State, as Randolph Bourne put it: war increases and centralizes State power, strengthening it and imposing a social and political conformity that armed struggle requires. American society, in short, is becoming rapidly militarized, so that all social factors – the economy, the political landscape, the life of the nation itself – are mobilized to a single end.
[]
War generates authoritarianism – and it also generates more wars. The present war doesn't exist in isolation from the rest of reality: it cannot be conveniently compartmentalized so that we can live a normal life, that is, the life of a free people, while it rages. The longer it goes on, the more it eats away at the very foundations of our republic: the moral, political, and economic pillars that hold up the roof of the social order. And keep in mind that this war is supposed to last for at least a generation, if not longer, according to our leaders. That's more than long enough to fatally undermine the values that make life in America worth living.

The War Party in America operates at a great advantage over the antiwar movement: to begin with, they are in power – and, I might add, barring some entirely unforeseen upsurge of rebellion, they will stay in power no matter which major party controls the White House and Congress. This means they have the initiative – and they have the tremendous resources of the U.S. government at their disposal.

Secondly, the War Party dominates the elites, not only in the government but also in the media and academia....

Because they dominate the elites, the War Party also dominates the two major political parties. It may be that the people oppose the war plans of this administration, or any other, but there is a way to get around that: the people can't vote for peace if it isn't on the ballot...

The weakness of the antiwar movement is never more apparent when it comes to the issue of Iran: here, after all, is a case where the War Party is clearly planning to make a major move. The propaganda campaign we are hearing is strikingly similar to that which preceded the invasion of Iraq...
[]
What's more, the supposed allies of the antiwar movement in the Democratic Party are considerably more aggressive when it comes to Iran than even the Bush administration. Hillary Clinton – the party's leading presidential candidate – has denounced what she calls "appeasement" of Tehran by the U.S., and has added her full-throated voice to demands from the neoconservatives that Bush get serious about stopping Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. The Democrats' critique of the Bushian foreign policy is limited to means, not ends. The problem, though, is that it is the goals and assumptions of that policy that must be challenged, not the details."

Ron @ Raw:

"Hossam Shaltout, a former political adviser to Saddam Hussein's son, said today that before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March of 2003, Saddam expressed his intent to yield to all American demands, but that the Bush administration refused his offers, according to a press release on Yahoo News.
[]
"Saddam was willing to yield to all American demands, announced and unannounced, to reach peaceful resolution," said Shaltout, "but the Bush administration, including Elizabeth Cheney, undersecretary of State, David Welch, the U.S. ambassador in Egypt, and Gene Cretz, his political attache, did not respond to his offers."

Shaltout claims that in March of 2003, just as he was to read the Iraqi government's official reply to the Bush ultimatum on Al-Jazeera, the broadcast was interrupted and "the plug was pulled on the transmission." He also maintains that later, when the Americans arrived in Baghdad, he offered his assistance to U.S. military officials, but instead was arrested by Marines who went to his hotel suite and took his documents.

Left unmentioned in the press release are Shaltout's claims that he was tortured and abused during his imprisonment.

In May of 2004, Shaltout told his story to MSNBC's Chris Matthews.

"I was there to convince Saddam Hussein to step down, and I was in the last hours working on this peace agreement," Shaltout said. "And I wanted him to keep the agreement that he agreed to step down only 15 minutes before the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) of this ultimatum. That was what I was doing there."

[]
According to his Web site, Rights And Freedom International, Shaltout is currently running for President of Egypt."

teh Hastert funnies

* ron has a case of teh Hastert funnies. here and here.

* you might remember this from my interview with larisa:

Luke: Hopefully we can make that an election issue in Hastert's race against John Laesch in November

LA: I dont know - I dont think he's going to be running.

Luke: Wow - really?

LA: I have a feeling that the way things are going - remember, there are factional turf wars much like the kinds you see in organized crime. They're at each others' throats - because greed knows no loyalty. I think he's made a tactical error in attempting to remove Duncan Hunter from the Armed Services Committee.

Remember, regarding the Dubai ports deal, Duncan Hunter recently came forward and said that Dubai had allowed nuclear switches and heavy water to be shipped from Turkey, via Dubai, to Iran, the same switches I referenced above as being accurate but together in the wrong context - and shortly thereafter Hastert tried to remove (I am still trying to firm up what actually occurred) Hunter from the Armed Services Committee.

Luke: That's right - and Dubai rejected a U.S. request to stop the shipment.

LA: Right - and I think that really opens Hastert up - if Hunter wants to put some pressure on. In other words, Duncan Hunter is a fairly powerful individual, and fairly aggressive. Despite my reporting on Hunter in certain business areas of his, he really seems to be very much against outsourcing of security of any sort. There seems to be a principle there for him, and he seems to be very adamant about that. So Hunter and his faction have a lot of ammunition should Hunter want to retain his seat, or whatnot. It gives a lot of power and persuasion to that argument. So it should be interesting how this plays out

Luke: Interesting indeed.

Larisa sent me an email earlier saying that Hunter was going to announce his presidential bid. It'd be interesting to know if Hunter has anything to do with Denny's current problems... Is the Turkish faction going to the wall?

* joementum's campaign responds to the NYT's endorsement on Nedmentum:

"Instead, the Times’ ill-informed and tendentious endorsement of Ned Lamont reads as if the editors had outsourced the editorial writing to the same crew of blindingly angry bloggers who have teamed with the Lamont Campaign to twist Joe Lieberman’s record beyond all recognition.

What resulted -– a cant recitation of discredited arguments, along with a willful ignorance of Senator Lieberman’s many accomplishments for the state and the country –- reveals far more about the Times’ knee-jerk biases and lack of rigor than either of the candidates.

The Times most obviously shows its narrow-mindedness by reducing the entire campaign to the war in Iraq, despite the fact that two-thirds of voters in Connecticut consistently say it is not their top concern. Even worse, the Times shows its disinterest in the truth by regurgitating several of the bloggers’ biggest falsehoods and grossly mischaracterizing Senator Lieberman’s position on Iraq.
[]
The most blatant evidence that the fix was in was your assertion that Mr. Lamont is “the far better candidate” to serve in the U.S. Senate. That is simply incomprehensible – and frankly an insult to your readers’ intelligence. "

there's more.

* jeralyn:

CNN Brings Bloggers to D.C. for Election Night

We'll be blogging the results and news tidbits live -- it should be a lot of fun.

Atrios, Christy of Firedoglake, John of Crooks and Liars will also be there.

i'll be drinking, and blogging. variously scared and optimistic, by turns. and swearing at Blogger (actually, let me announce here, that if Blogger is having any troubles whatsoever on Tuesday night, i'll be over at my other site. Check in there if i'm not posting every few seconds.)

teh Hastert funnies

* ron has a case of teh Hastert funnies. here and here.

* you might remember this from my interview with larisa:

Luke: Hopefully we can make that an election issue in Hastert's race against John Laesch in November

LA: I dont know - I dont think he's going to be running.

Luke: Wow - really?

LA: I have a feeling that the way things are going - remember, there are factional turf wars much like the kinds you see in organized crime. They're at each others' throats - because greed knows no loyalty. I think he's made a tactical error in attempting to remove Duncan Hunter from the Armed Services Committee.

Remember, regarding the Dubai ports deal, Duncan Hunter recently came forward and said that Dubai had allowed nuclear switches and heavy water to be shipped from Turkey, via Dubai, to Iran, the same switches I referenced above as being accurate but together in the wrong context - and shortly thereafter Hastert tried to remove (I am still trying to firm up what actually occurred) Hunter from the Armed Services Committee.

Luke: That's right - and Dubai rejected a U.S. request to stop the shipment.

LA: Right - and I think that really opens Hastert up - if Hunter wants to put some pressure on. In other words, Duncan Hunter is a fairly powerful individual, and fairly aggressive. Despite my reporting on Hunter in certain business areas of his, he really seems to be very much against outsourcing of security of any sort. There seems to be a principle there for him, and he seems to be very adamant about that. So Hunter and his faction have a lot of ammunition should Hunter want to retain his seat, or whatnot. It gives a lot of power and persuasion to that argument. So it should be interesting how this plays out

Luke: Interesting indeed.

Larisa sent me an email earlier saying that Hunter was going to announce his presidential bid. It'd be interesting to know if Hunter has anything to do with Denny's current problems... Is the Turkish faction going to the wall?

* joementum's campaign responds to the NYT's endorsement on Nedmentum:

"Instead, the Times’ ill-informed and tendentious endorsement of Ned Lamont reads as if the editors had outsourced the editorial writing to the same crew of blindingly angry bloggers who have teamed with the Lamont Campaign to twist Joe Lieberman’s record beyond all recognition.

What resulted -– a cant recitation of discredited arguments, along with a willful ignorance of Senator Lieberman’s many accomplishments for the state and the country –- reveals far more about the Times’ knee-jerk biases and lack of rigor than either of the candidates.

The Times most obviously shows its narrow-mindedness by reducing the entire campaign to the war in Iraq, despite the fact that two-thirds of voters in Connecticut consistently say it is not their top concern. Even worse, the Times shows its disinterest in the truth by regurgitating several of the bloggers’ biggest falsehoods and grossly mischaracterizing Senator Lieberman’s position on Iraq.
[]
The most blatant evidence that the fix was in was your assertion that Mr. Lamont is “the far better candidate” to serve in the U.S. Senate. That is simply incomprehensible – and frankly an insult to your readers’ intelligence. "

there's more.

* jeralyn:

CNN Brings Bloggers to D.C. for Election Night

We'll be blogging the results and news tidbits live -- it should be a lot of fun.

Atrios, Christy of Firedoglake, John of Crooks and Liars will also be there.

i'll be drinking, and blogging. variously scared and optimistic, by turns. and swearing at Blogger (actually, let me announce here, that if Blogger is having any troubles whatsoever on Tuesday night, i'll be over at my other site. Check in there if i'm not posting every few seconds.)

Via Simon, Politics With Richard:

Do we Hate our Enemy or Love our Enemy? Do we have the courage to love the terrorists?

The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral,
begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy. Instead of diminishing evil, it multiplies it. Through violence you may murder the liar, but you cannot murder the lie, nor establish the truth. Through violence you may murder the hater, but you do not murder hate. In fact, violence merely increases hate. So it goes.

Returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that. Hate multiplies hate, violence multiplies violence, and toughness multiplies toughness in a descending spiral of destruction.... The chain reaction of evil — hate begetting hate, wars producing more wars — must be broken, or we shall be plunged into the dark abyss of annihilation.

-Martin Luther King, 1963

This has become one of my favourite quotes of all time. Dr. King summarized my theory on violence, war, and destruction. " Through violence you may murder the hater, but you do not murder hate." That is a powerful, powerful sentiment which carries through to this day.

We live in a culture which promotes the attitude that we must "get them over there, so that they don't get us over here." This is rhetoric which sits well with many Americans because it plays to their fears. The unknown is a frightening place; we all know that. We are inherently suspicious of those who we do not know; we are inherently angry to those who have done us harm. In this sense, there is no place for listening; there is no place for dialogue; there is no place for understanding. Men who despise each other cannot be friends or live in harmony so long as they despise each other. Peace can never be reached so long as we promote a culture of retaliation, revenge, and fear.

that sounds just about right.

judy miller and the kurds

* apparently blogger ate my post yesterday about Judy Miller's article on the (iraqi) kurds.

* emptywheel:

"While Miller's new column--an interview with Kurdistan's President Massoud Barzani and his nephew--clearly attempts to sway public opinion (in this case, to advocate for a semi-independent Kurdish state bolstered by a fair number of American troops), it is free of the noxious, barely hidden propaganda of administration spin. Just the Barzanis and their pitch for a new and thriving Kurdistan.

I'm most curious, though, about the timing. Do you think it's a coincidence that Miller's column appears at the same time as Chalabi is offering the AP an interview from the safety of his London home?
[]
And then there's this other bit. Who in their right mind calls for negotiation with the Iranians and the Turks, but leaves out Syria? Maybe that's just Chalabi taking his anti-Baathist campaign internationally. But it sure does look like a bid for accommodation with Iran and Turkey, and to hell with the Sunnis and Syrians.

Anyway, Chalabi's up to something, that's for sure. By comparison, Judy looks downright upfront with her influence piece!"

Larryjohnson:

"CUCKOO! Judith Miller is baaaaaack. She has a featured piece in the WSJ's The Observer, "Kurdistan: A conversation with the president of Iraq's most successful region." They have "pristine new parks," no car bombs, and a huge new marble palace. They heart President Bush. And they really love American soldiers: "The more American soldiers the better, a top aide confirms.""

he forgot poland.

* larryjohnson:

Tyler Drumheller, the recently retired CIA Chief for the European Division during the build up for the war in Iraq is out with a great new book, On the Brink. Tyler's account takes you inside the CIA during the month before 9-11 and through the start of the war in Iraq. He was in charge of all U.S. clandestine operations in Europe, including Turkey. But beyond a look back at what went wrong with Iraq from an intelligence perspective, Tyler offers a devastating critique of how the Bush Administration has engaged in an unprecedented politicization of the CIA. In corrupting the intelligence community the Bush Administration has put the nation at greater risk and hobbled an important government resource.

Tyler's book is unique because it offers the first insider's account about the events surrounding the build up to the war in Iraq, including the backstory on Curveball (the Iraqi fabricator) and the interactions with our British and Turkish allies.
[]

On the Brink is not another bash Bush book. Drumheller makes it very clear that George W. Bush alone is not the cause of the fiasco unfolding along the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates. Within the CIA, Tyler points an unwavering finger at George Tenet and his deputy, John McLaughlin. They were warned by Tyler that Curveball, the source claiming firsthand knowledge of mobil biological weapons labs in Iraq, was a fraud. And they did nothing. When the full story of the debacle surrounding Iraq is finally told, Tenet and McLaughlin will deserve the scorn of their countrymen rather than medals of freedom. They failed to stand strong when it counted and enabled a flawed President to take our country to war in the wrong place at the wrong time.

* war of the words. pt4. it has a He Forgot Poland moment for our Poland fans.

* Krugman (thnx Jen):

"Last week’s report on G.D.P. showed the first signs of serious economic damage. According to the “advance” estimates (which are often subject to major revisions), growth in the third quarter of 2006 slowed to its worst level since early 2003. A plunge in spending on residential construction, which fell at an annual rate of 17 percent, was the main culprit. But was that just a temporary setback, or the beginning of something much worse?
[]
But I think the pessimists have a stronger case. There’s a lot of evidence that home prices, although they’ve started to decline, are still way out of line. Spending on home construction remains abnormally high as a percentage of G.D.P., because banks are still lending freely in spite of rapidly rising foreclosure rates.

This means that home sales probably still have a long way to fall. And you don’t want to make too much of the fact that some housing indicators have turned up; those indicators tend to bounce around a lot from month to month."

* via Jen:

"Paul Krugman: As I understand it, al Qaeda is not at all popular in Iraq, even among the Sunni insurgents; there are even anti-al Qaeda death squads operating. Yes, Iraq is likely to end up as a collection of Islamic warlord principalities; but probably not run by people determined to make terrorist attacks on America. In Afghanistan, by contrast, we're talking about a comeback by the same people who originally gave bin Laden a base of operations."

The president loves to talk to operators

* froomkin:

"Matthias Gebauer and Georg Mascolo interview author Ron Suskind for Der Spiegel online:

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: With all your access to high-level sources, have you come across anyone who still thinks it is a good idea for the U.S. to torture people?

"Suskind: No. Most of the folks involved say that we made mistakes at the start. The president wants to keep all options open because he never wants his hands tied in any fashion, as he says, because he doesn't know what's ahead. But those involved in the interrogation protocol, I think are more or less in concert in saying that, in our panic in the early days, we made some mistakes.

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: Because they could have gotten information through normal interrogations . . . .

"Suskind: . . . yes, and without paying this terrific price, namely: America's moral standing. We poured plenteous gasoline on the fires of jihadist recruitment.

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: So the average interrogator at a Black Site understands more about the mistakes made than the president?

"Suskind: The president understands more about the mistakes than he lets on. He knows what the most-skilled interrogators know too. He gets briefed, and he was deeply involved in this process from the beginning. The president loves to talk to operators.""

* amy:

"Report: Israel May Have Dropped Uranium-Based Bombs in Lebanon
British journalist Robert Fisk is reporting that Israel may have dropped uranium-based munitions on targets during its war against Lebanon. A leading British scientist has found that soil samples in Lebanon show elevated radiation and the concentration of uranium isotopes. According to the scientist, Dr. Chris Busby, there are two possible reasons for the contamination. Israel might have dropped a small experimental nuclear fission device or Israel used a bunker-busting conventional uranium bomb that employed enriched uranium. Robert Fisk reports that a photograph of one explosion shows large clouds of black smoke that might result from burning uranium. Israel has denied the report. However, last week the Israeli military admitted for the first time that it had dropped phosphorous bombs on Lebanon."

* amy:

"U.S. Carries Out War Games In Persian Gulf
The United States has begun carrying out a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf near the coast of Iran. The U.S.-led war games are reportedly designed to test the ability of nations to intercept ships carrying weapons of mass destruction. The exercises are being conducted in the waters off of Bahrain. The ships will be within 120 miles of the Iranian coast. Iran called the naval exercise “adventurous.”"

* soto:

"There is a growing meme developing in the center-left blogosphere over the last several days that goes something like this:

Despite the pre-election polls and expert analysis by folks like those at Congressional Quarterly, the GOP steals enough close races through electronic voting fraud to keep the House and Senate. To deal with the immediate backlash from Democrats and the media stemming from these discrepancies and the charges of another stolen election, Bush springs a November surprise to distract the public through an attack on Iran. To suppress the reaction to this Wag the Dog maneuver here at home, he uses newly-granted and just-discovered powers to mobilize the National Guard here at home to implement martial law under the pretense of national security while we are at war with Iran. So Bush steals the election and then ensures that no one can do anything about it."

happy halloween

via holden

a backward march into the Dark Ages

* digby:

"I think that is one of the most interesting observations I've read in a while (certainly in the New York Times.) The Republicans and the Christian Right are leading America on a backward march into the Dark Ages --- and that is stepping on our dreams. As a culture, we have always been idealistic about progress and inspired by new discoveries to improve the lot of the human race. We're about invention and reinvention. It's one of our best qualities.

These people are telling us that those days are over. We have to depend upon brute force, superstition and ancient revelation. Science is dangerous. Art is frightening. Education must be strictly circumscribed so that children aren't exposed to ideas that might lead them astray."

* tristero:

"Please understand that I think the Dems, in reality, have no incentive to backpedal or go soft on the egregiously awful, even criminal, behavior of our Republican overlords. They should hold them accountable via robust investigations, oversights, and when called for, indictments. That said, in reality there are many obstacles to doing so. The worst, of course, is that the US has a juvenile delinquent for a president who has been double-daring his opponents to make explicit the constitutional crisis he began during the Florida election debacle of 2000, and which he has renewed over Schiavo and the filibuster "nuclear option." Rightly or wrongly, the Democrats will not act in such a way as to force a serious public showdown over Bush's crackpot notion of the "unitary executive" (ie, the idea that the Constitution makes a Republican president an absolute monarch)."

* Time:

"On the face of it, Abu Doha would appear to be the sort of case for which the U.S. offshore detention system was created. The 40-year-old Algerian militant is alleged by counter-terror officials to be a Qaeda-aligned terror kingpin and suspected of involvement in a number of plots around the world, including the "Millennium Bomb" plot aimed at Los Angeles International airport in 2000. Yet, as things stand, Abu Doha looks set to be freed from prison in Britain and deported on immigration violations, after the U.S dropped its bid to extradite him over the LAX plot.

The prospect of his going free troubles security officials on both sides of the Atlantic, and leaves some bewildered by Washington's decision to drop its case against him.

* via Raw:

" Former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and his British corporate lawyer, David Mills, are to stand trial on charges of corruption, judges in Milan ruled Monday. Judge Fabio Paparella set the trial's opening hearing for March 13.

Berlusconi is accused of paying 600,000 dollars to Mills to persuade him to withhold evidence in two corruption trials involving his Mediaset company, back in the 1990s.

The two are already facing another court trial on charges including false accounting and tax evasion. That trial is set to start on November 21."

Duncan Hunter for President?

* josh:

"Finally. Some comic relief. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president.

Possible slogans: I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too.

I hear Bob Ney may be making a few swings through New Hampshire too."

* SDUT via laura:

"Hunter's ambitions come as a surprise to other Republicans, none of whom had an inkling that he might look to jump into what is likely to be a crowded field for the GOP presidential nomination. But even more shocking is that he would do this a week before the midterm election that may shift control of the House to the Democrats and cost Hunter his chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee. Hunter is running for re-election Nov. 7.
“To say it's curious timing is quite an understatement. It is bizarre,” said Stuart Rothenberg, the editor of an independent political newsletter in Washington. “It does suggest he figures he's going to have some time on his hands, that he won't have to worry about running hearings and fashioning legislation. He must figure one of his Democratic colleagues will be taking care of that.”

Charlie Cook, another nonpartisan political analyst, was similarly baffled by the timing. “He may not be the only prominent committee chairman looking for something else to do after next week,” he said. “But this is very strange timing.”"

nearly everyone is amazed.

* meanwhile, wapo via tpmm:

""The House ethics committee has all but wrapped up the investigative phase of its probe into the actions of former representative Mark Foley, informing key witnesses that they will not be summoned back for more questioning, lawyers in the case said yesterday.

"But those lawyers indicated that the committee is unlikely to release its report on the Florida Republican -- or even an interim memo -- before the Nov. 7 elections.""

* billmon:

"The Rovian world view is both deeply pessimistic and infinitely cynical (which is one of the reasons why I feel I understand it so well). The working assumption seems to be that the partisan divide between Republican and Democrat -- or more accurately, between conservative and non-conservative -- is too deep to fill and too wide to bridge. That being the case, 51% is the best either side can hope for, as well as the most politically effective and efficient majority. In other words, the best of all possible worlds.

There is a double irony to that, because in pursuit of their 51% majority the Rovians have repeatedly felt compelled to betray their own conservative base -- digging into the pork barrel with both hands, passing the biggest boost in entitlement spending since Social Security was COLAized, cozying up to the gambling industry, etc. All so they can attract that 10 to 15 percentage point sliver of uncommitted voters, while giving nothing but the finger to Democrats and Democratic leaners, even though many of the latter were ripe for the picking in the wake of 9/11.

So now they have the worst of all worlds -- a Democratic base ready to walk over burning coals to vote against them, a broad mass of centrist ex-supporters who feel badly used and abused, and and a conservative base that is disillusioned and disgusted with the cynical compromises required by the 51% strategy.
[]
I guess I'm OK with it, too. After all, I hate them just as deeply as they hate me, if not more so. I also don't see much of a future in the plutocratic fraud that goes by the name of "democracy" in this country, nor do I expect the hollow men of the punditburo to suddenly wake up one day and see reality, no matter how patiently and politely they're asked to open their fucking eyes."

blogger is bloggered.

John Warner Defense Authorization Act

Profmarcus in the comments:

meanwhile, look what snuck in the back door...

-----

Public Law 109-364, or the "John Warner Defense Authorization Act of 2007" (H.R.5122) (2), which was signed by the commander in chief on October 17th, 2006, in a private Oval Office ceremony, allows the President to declare a "public emergency" and station troops anywhere in America and take control of state-based National Guard units without the consent of the governor or local authorities, in order to "suppress public disorder."

President Bush seized this unprecedented power on the very same day that he signed the equally odious Military Commissions Act of 2006. In a sense, the two laws complement one another. One allows for torture and detention abroad, while the other seeks to enforce acquiescence at home, preparing to order the military onto the streets of America. Remember, the term for putting an area under military law enforcement control is precise; the term is "martial law."

Section 1076 of the massive Authorization Act, which grants the Pentagon another $500-plus-billion for its ill-advised adventures, is entitled, "Use of the Armed Forces in Major Public Emergencies." Section 333, "Major public emergencies; interference with State and Federal law" states that "the President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to restore public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of a natural disaster, epidemic, or other serious public health emergency, terrorist attack or incident, or other condition in any State or possession of the United States, the President determines that domestic violence has occurred to such an extent that the constituted authorities of the State or possession are incapable of ("refuse" or "fail" in) maintaining public order, "in order to suppress, in any State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy."

For the current President, "enforcement of the laws to restore public order" means to commandeer guardsmen from any state, over the objections of local governmental, military and local police entities; ship them off to another state; conscript them in a law enforcement mode; and set them loose against "disorderly" citizenry - protesters, possibly, or those who object to forced vaccinations and quarantines in the event of a bio-terror event.

The law also facilitates militarized police round-ups and detention of protesters, so called "illegal aliens," "potential terrorists" and other "undesirables" for detention in facilities already contracted for and under construction by Halliburton. That's right. Under the cover of a trumped-up "immigration emergency" and the frenzied militarization of the southern border, detention camps are being constructed right under our noses, camps designed for anyone who resists the foreign and domestic agenda of the Bush administration.

-----

the overwhelming question is why...? why was this draconian measure even being considered, much less enacted...? why was it done covertly...? why haven't the media picked up on it...? never mind, i can answer that last one, but, fer god's sake, why hasn't it been jumped on by the major progressive blogs...? is it because no one wants to believe our government capable of actually taking such criminal action...? for those who pay attention, i don't see why that would be so hard to swallow... i've watched bushco move in this direction for nearly two years, step by secretive step... the pattern is clear for anyone who isn't afraid to see it for what it is... how, pray tell, can we bring this to a halt...? please, someone, tell me...

Can anyone help the good perfessor? I got nothin.

----------
update: LeeB from the comments:

There's at least one person with a plan to answer this. Luke, I sent you the link to this first diary when I found it back on October 19. I think you've been awash in email since then so may not have seen it.

From Major Danby (on Daily Kos): "HUGE! Bush Guts Posse Comitatus, Grabs National Guard!"

Then on Saturday, from Greg at Carter for Nevada (on Daily Kos): "NV-SEN: Why I've just quit Jack Carter's campaign (it's OK, he'll still win)"

The Connection: In Greg's tip jar, he says:
"One of the things that made me hesitate to do this is that it also means my giving up my anonymity as “Major Danby”. I’ll be writing and faxing letters about this, and potentially getting some radio play, and I can’t do that as effectively under a pseudonym. I’m not happy about outing myself. But this actually is a constitutional crisis in waiting, and the Bush Administration gives me no confidence that – even if this wasn’t an intentional move on their part – it will not use such power unfairly and to its advantage. So: goodbye anonymity. If you’re going to try to take Paul Revere’s ride to warn people about what King George's troops are doing, you have to let people know who you are."

Then, again on Daily Kos, from Major Danby: "Martial law, Section 1076, and FINGER: v1029.1"

I've been following Major Danby's posts for quite some time and have picked up a few biographical bits about him from some of them - that he is a law school professor is the most relevant.

The first post linked above is the bell-ringer; the second is where he's been hanging out for the past couple of months and what he intends to do to fight back - and why (the explanation won't be a surprise). The third is the launch he promised in the second.

There isn't much time to get everything done on the 'to-do' list before the election - just 8 more days, and Greg (Major Danby) says ". . . I want this damn law changed so quickly that it leaves skid marks on the Senate floor."

Me, too. I would just add we need to get the ENTIRE damn law changed that fast. But this part is especially important right NOW.

thnx LeeB

Yet, ironically, the death squads are the result of US policy

* Independent:

"This (Iraq) is a shadowy struggle, which involves tortured prisoners huddled in dungeons, murder victims mutilated with knives and electric drills, and distraught families searching for relations who have been "disappeared".
[]
Yet, ironically, the death squads are the result of US policy. At the beginning of last year, with no end to the Sunni insurgency in sight, the Pentagon was reported to have decided to train Shia and Kurdish fighters to carry out "irregular missions". The policy, exposed in the US media, was called the "Salvador Option" after the American-backed counter-insurgency in Latin America more than 20 years ago, which led to 70,000 deaths and countless instances of human rights abuse."

* driftglass:

"Somewhere in my deepest and more proudly paranoid recesses I envision a Liberal Master Cylinder -- like Commander Kos but oh so much higher up the food chain -- studying the morally-flatlining pod people the Right has been breeding for the last 30 years and deciding to go Full Metal John Galt on their granite, Christalopithecan skulls.

“Let them have it all,” the Progressive John Galt of my imagination sayeth. “Just step out of their way. Let them win and then let them wallow in the Hell their winning will create.”

Because perhaps in the end there was no way to break the Moderates of their lethal delusions but to play Clarence the Angel and let them see what the world would be like if Conservatives were actually forced to step up, shut the fuck up and govern.

To stop bitching and whining and Rushing and Gingriching about how glorious things would be if we had no Federal government.

If we ran the country as a White Christian fiefdom.

If we unilaterally voided the social contract.

If we deregulated corporations wholesale.

If we elevated torture to national policy, spied on our own citizens without warrants, and fed habeas corpus into the wood chipper.

If we and openly used our military as the meat-axe of Empire to eviscerate anyone who made us nervous and conquer anyone who sat on any natural resources our Ruling Clique wanted to exploit.

In other words, if we let the Christopaths actually run the joint and live with the fallout.

Because the blight and fear and debt and death all around us in the Year of Our Lord 2006 are not what happens in spite of Conservativism, but the apotheosis of Conservativism.

And what this bitter lesson has taught us is simply this: We cannot allow thuggish children whose vision of our future is grounded in a truculent and superstitious pseudo-religion and a proudly imbecilic ignorance of science, history, economics, world affairs and basic English to run the country.

Ever again."

House of Death mass murder cover-up: National Security.

* bill conroy:

"U.S. government lawyers have reached for the ultimate weapon in the House of Death mass murder cover-up: National Security.

Once that label is successfully applied to any aspect of the case, it is a sure bet the full truth of the U.S. government’s complicity in the murders will forever be suppressed.
[]
The murders were carried out with the help of a U.S. government informant — a former Mexican cop who had attained high standing in Santillan’s organization. The informant, Guillermo Ramirez Peyro, was under the watch of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and an Assistant U.S. Attorney in El Paso, Texas.

When the informant’s role came to light, after his activities nearly cost the lives of a DEA agent and his family, rather than investigate the callous activities of U.S. law enforcers who allowed the informant to commit murder under government cover, the leadership of the U.S. Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, chose to bury the facts along with the bodies.

A cover-up was hatched, that continues to this day, and the high-ranking DEA agent, Sandalio Gonzalez, who blew the whistle on the whole sordid affair, became yet another victim of the House of Death — his career ruined in the aftermath of a calculated effort to silence the messenger.
[]
However, if the government is successful in invoking classified status for key public documents associated with this bloody drug-war catastrophe (documents such as the JAT report), then critical evidence that might expose the complicity of U.S. officials in the House of Death murders will be buried.

So just what’s in the JAT report that the government doesn’t want us to see — to the extent that it is even willing to invoke the stealth trump card of national security?
[]
But, really, it’s none of our business if U.S. officials helped to facilitate mass murder in Mexico. It’s our patriotic duty to trust the government unquestioningly."

the world's greatest democracy.

* atrios:

"Well, leave it to old Saddam to say what everyone knows to be true but which no one is talking about. According to CNN he asserts that his Nov. 5 verdict is for propaganda purposes for the US election. Well, duhh."

* huffpo:

"On Sunday's The Chris Matthews Show, NBC Congressional Correspondent Chip Reid dropped a bomb during Matthew's "Tell Me Something I Don't Know" segment. "I'm going to be a little cryptic here," Reid began, then added, ""the Mark Foley scandal investigation is going to widen a little bit.""

* jane:

"A hundred years from now (okay, maybe ten) when people sit around open-mouthed and marvel at the Pravda-esque state of early 21st Century American journalism and the outrageous deceptions perpetuated by those who smugly considered themselves to be titans of the craft, they are going to look at the work of Keith Olbermann and say "WTF? Why wasn't everybody listening to that guy?" "

* i'm watching FoxNews Sunday - Chris Wallace had his wheaties this morning - he was actually quite fair to the Dems! amazing.

* johncole:

"We might get back a bit of what we had if the GOP goes down in a glorious wreck this November, but I wouldn’t get excited just yet. Here’s a simple metric – count the days it takes each network to put up a graphic reading: Have the Democrats Gone Too Far? It doesn’t really matter what the actual topic is, since it is hard to imagine an area of government which the GOP has not pushed to ludicrous extremes. Inevitably the Dems will try to push some policy topic back into sane world and one of the David Broders will declare his feelings hurt."

* bobharris:

"The delivery of the verdict in Saddam Hussein’s trial, originally set for October 16th, has been postponed… until the Sunday before the vote on Tuesday, November 7th.

Which means the news cycle on Monday, November 6th, the day before the elections, will be filled with reports about the conviction of Saddam Hussein.

Of course, this can be dismissed as a complete coincidence. If you are a complete idiot."

* aflcio via gilliard, georgia10:

"Easily forgotten is how close 15 of the Republicans' victories were in 1994. Had Democrats in key districts won a combined 52,000 more votes, there would have been no "Speaker Gingrich." That failure continues to devastate our country."

the world's greatest democracy.

dirtiest election ever?

big version here

i love the pic with Blinky hiding.

clemons: anarchy lie ahead for the country

* clemons:

"The next two years are going to be politically bloody and difficult ones for the nation and the world. There is a somewhat understandable, yet naive, hope that Democratic success in the coming election will somehow corner President Bush and his team into a more rational national security posture.

To some degree this is true. Democratic political strength in the nation is palpable, and virtually everyone sees the House of Representatives changing management, though the Senate is far less certain. Senator John Warner, Bush family "fixer" James Baker III, and others see this change in course coming -- and are trying to develop fig leaves for Bush to tack a different course on Iraq and US foreign policy in general.

But this view of change misses some key detail and parts of the political picture that need to be factored in.

First, Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team and new Committee chairs will not be able to hold back the calls for investigation, testimony under oath, and "public hangings" for those responsible for the corrupt practices with firms like Halliburton, the politicization of intelligence driven by Douglas Feith and friends; and the management failures that led to Abu Ghraib, Haditha, Guantanamo, and the lack of body armor for American soldiers.

In fact, Pelosi should not hold back. A public spotlight must be focused on those who took this nation in to the Iraq War -- and in particular, hearings along the lines of those that Harry Truman called in the Senate in 1940 to expose war profiteers should be quickly assembled and legal investigations of the structural corruption behind this war launched.

[]
If the House becomes the primary driver of investigations into the abuses, corruption, and duplicity that took this nation into a war that has undermined American status and security in the world, then the spotlight on the many scandals to roll forward will actually bring over Republicans.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid need to make sure that they have space in their plans for Republican defections away from the White House -- and the Dems need to force Republicans to vote over and over again on legislation and resolutions and investigation authorizations related to the Iraq War and America's currently self-defeating foreign policy.

We are going to see the implosion of the Bush presidency I think -- and just like Watergate -- there needs to be space for the William Cohen types and Howard Baker types of this Congress to join in a collaborative spirit with Democrats to save this country.

The problem with the thesis I am describing is that it doesn't quite capture how reluctant the White House will be to cooperate -- even if the President wants to tack towards a new and constructive direction in America's Middle East policy.
[]

But Bush will not go quietly -- and more importantly -- the allies for a better direction in foreign policy who actually do exist in hidden corners of the Bush administration are dominated by Cheney's followers throughout the national security bureaucracy.
[]
Cheney's acolytes will see a new equilibrium in the MIddle East as code for selling out Israel's security interests because they do see these issues in zero sum terms, even if the President of the United States does not (by then).

Cheney's people, if not neutralized, will derail any new opportunities or directions.

They need to be exposed as part of the broad Cheney network and pushed to the side. That is the only way to let some other policy possibilities to take root in the next two years of the Bush administration.

Dems and moderate Republicans can take credit as needed for these new changes in policy -- but without neutralizing Cheney down to the roots of his power -- policy and political anarchy lie ahead for the country."

a reminder

Teh Terrorists want to kill you. and your children. in their beds. without blinking.

9 days left. gotv.

dont be sorry, everybody. gotv.


* christy:

"There are 9 days — NINE DAYS! — until the election. Do you know where your yard signs are? How about your polling place? Have you offered to give rides to some of the folks who work with you — or your neighbors — or friends — or family to go and vote? "

Chalabi is on the lam

* ap:

"Ahmad Chalabi, a former Pentagon favorite who was once Iraq's deputy prime minister, urged the United States to open talks with Iran, saying Saturday that it could help reduce sectarian violence in Iraq and allow U.S. forces to withdraw.
[]
He cited the rise in American deaths and sectarian violence, and the fact that the main grounds for the invasion turned out to be false. But, he said, "it is indisputable that Saddam was an evil force and that he had links to terrorist organizations."

In a wide-ranging interview at his home in central London, Chalabi - a moderate secularist Shiite - criticized secret talks between Iraq's Sunni Arab-led insurgency and U.S. officials, saying they would not help stabilize Iraq's fragile government, reduce violence or pave the way for U.S. forces to leave Iraq.
[]
"Iran and Turkey, both powerful neighbors of Iraq, must be involved in the process to help Iraq's security situation improve and its democratic process and economy develop," Chalabi said.
[]
In addition, Chalabi was convicted in absentia in 1992 by a Jordanian military court of embezzlement, fraud and breach of trust after a bank he ran collapsed with about $300 million in missing deposits. Chalabi, who denies wrongdoing, was sentenced to 22 years in prison in Jordan but has yet to serve a day.
[]
During the interview, Chalabi sided with U.S. analysts who have suggested that the United States should encourage a reconciliation conference, bringing in not only Iraqis but also countries such as Iran and Turkey."

wow. nice of AP to mention the fact that chalabi is a convicted felon. that usually doesn't make it's way into reports. remember the time that GWB met with the King of Jordan, and the King had to edumucate GWB about the fact that Chalabi is on the lam? hysterical.

weldon's other daughter

* mcclatchy:

"Pennsylvania congressman Curt Weldon, under investigation for allegedly trading his influence to get lobbying business for one of his daughters, also has helped corporations that have hired another daughter, a friend and some of his former aides.

Federal Election Commission reports show that within months of Weldon's advocacy on their behalf, three of these firms and their executives gave more than $95,000 in political contributions to the 10-term Republican.
[]
It's often difficult to tell where Weldon's official business ends and his family's and friends' personal business begins:

-Weldon's younger daughter, Kimberly, worked part time in 2003 for one of her older sister's lobbying clients, a foundation run by the family of two Serbian brothers for whom Weldon tried to help obtain U.S. visas. She now works for an Italian defense company that got Weldon's help in trying to reverse a Navy decision to buy deck guns from a U.S. competitor.
[]
In late 2005, Kimberly Weldon landed another job with ties to her father, performing community relations work in Washington and Pennsylvania for AgustaWestland, a helicopter maker for the Italian defense giant Finmeccanica. An Agusta spokesman, who didn't want to be named, called her "the best candidate" for the "low-paying" job and praised her as "one of our best employees."

The spokesman said Weldon was of little help in the firm's success in landing, with Textron Bell and Lockheed Martin, a $1.6 billion contract to build a 23-helicopter fleet, which will provide the next presidential helicopter. The publication Aviation Week & Space Technology, however, reported that Weldon was a key supporter of the winning bid. Since 2001, employees and PACs for Textron, Lockheed and AgustaWestland have given $77,050 to Weldon's campaign and his PAC for fellow Republicans.

Weldon also has aided another Finmeccanica subsidiary, Oto Melara North America Inc., pushing an amendment to require the Navy to revisit its decision to buy a U.S. rival's deck guns for a new fleet of 55 combat ships."

postsecret sunday

postsecret sunday

'american politics'

today i was asked, again, why i am interested in 'american politics'. i get asked this all the time - and it always surprises me. but people think it is weird that an 'australian blogger' gives a shit about 'american politics'.

there really is no such thing as 'american politics' - 1) 'american politics' gets a whole lot of people killed, and 2) 'american politics' affects us all

and 99% of my 'interest' is in point1

that's pretty clear, right?

kickin back with lukery et al

i got nothin.

it's open mike time

what are your favorite social issues this weekend?

what drugs do you wish you were doing? to what music? with what type of partner? after what meal? wearing what? in what location?

hallo-cocktail-weenie

* wow - look at how much work Ron did when his computer was dead. when my computer is dead, i clean up the place or something. ron keeps working, somehow.

* rimone is excited about her weekend. happy hallo-cocktail-weenie

We endorse Ned Lamont for Senate

nyt ed:

"The fatal problem with Mr. Lieberman’s candidacy is not that he was wrong about the invasion, but that he has not shown any capacity to grow and change. Suggesting that getting rid of Donald Rumsfeld might be a good idea is hardly a breakthrough at a time when the secretary of defense’s supporters are pretty much limited to the president and members of the Rumsfeld family.

Mr. Lieberman has changed his tone but not his underlying conviction that he has been right all along. He and Mr. Bush are still on the very same page, encouraging the American people to believe that there is a happy ending for American involvement in Iraq, and that all it takes is the perseverance to keep marching toward the end of the rainbow.

Ned Lamont has run a far less polished campaign than Mr. Lieberman, but the more we see of him, the more impressed we are by his intelligence and his growing sophistication about the issues facing the nation. He is very much in the Connecticut mold of basically moderate, principled politicians, and his willingness to take on Mr. Lieberman when no one else dared to do it showed real courage and conviction. He would make a good senator. More important, he has the capacity to continually become a better one. We endorse Ned Lamont for Senate."

gotv

dont less this be you

re the california fires, i don't understand the mind of bushfire arsonists.

i can kinda understand the attraction of fire, and perhaps even destroying an isolated warehouse or something - as romanticized in MC 900 FOOT JESUS' The City Sleeps - an amazing track.

but setting fire to thousands of acres and killing people and animals and destroying homes and such? that's a mystery to me.

let the games begin.

digby:

This is why I don't want any of us to think for a moment that winning and losing elections means the same thing to us as it means to them. Democrats believe in government and they want to make it work. Republicans see government purely as a means to exert power. Unfortunately, they are not very good at that because in the modern world sheer, dumb might is no longer possible. The best they can do is loot the treasury and leave the rest of their mess to be cleaned up by the Democrats.

What they really excel at is politics. Governance just hangs them up. And don't think for a moment that they will be chagrined or ashamed and crawl off into a hole to lick their wounds. Being defeated liberates them to do what they are really good at --- destroying the opposition and pushing their agenda with sophisticated, scorched earth political rhetoric. It's not natural for them to be on the defense and they don't like it. They are going back to their natural state --- victimhood and the aggressive attack.

Get ready. The Democrats will not only have to govern, but they will have to fix all the problems they've created while fighting them every step of the way. They're not going away. And they will pull out every stop to win every election, not because they necessarily want to govern but because that's how you keep score. For a long, long time they've been able to get their way whether they win or lose and they see no reason to doubt that will continue. And unless we put a stop to this they might be right.

That's why this is important:

LET THE HEARINGS BEGIN!
Subpoena Envy
by Michael Crowley

As the Lord High Executioner said in The Mikado, 'I have a little list.'" So says John Dingell, the 26-term Michigan House Democrat who spent 14 years as a mighty committee baron before the 1995 Republican Revolution booted him into the powerless minority. At last poised to reclaim his House Energy and Commerce Committee gavel, the 80-year-old Dingell now sounds like a man who can't wait for 2007. Though he knows a House Democratic majority won't pass much legislation, especially given George W. Bush's veto pen, his chairmanship means he can subject the Bush administration to high-profile committee hearings--lots and lots of them.

"Privacy," he begins. "Social Security-number protection. Outsourcing protection. Unfair trade practices. Currency manipulation. Air quality. We'll look at the implementation of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We'll take a look at climate change. We'll take a look at [the Department of Energy's] nuclear waste program, where literally billions of dollars are being dissipated. We'll look at port security and nuclear smuggling, where there's literally nothing being done. We'll look at the Superfund program. We'll take a look at EPA enforcement." He pauses for a breath--but he's just getting started: "On health, we'll take a look at Medicaid and waivers. The Food and Drug Administration. Generic drug approval. Medical safety. We'll also take a look at food supplements, where people are being killed. We will look at Medicare Part D [prescription drugs]." Is that all? "Telecom. We'll look at FCC actions. ... Media ownership. Adequate spectrum for police, fire, public safety, and addressing the problems of terrorism. ... We will look also at the overall question of Katrina recovery efforts."

As Democrats have gained in the polls, Republicans are predicting that a Democratic majority will mean a frenzy of political witch hunts directed at them by newly installed chairmen like Dingell. "You can expect two years of all-out investigations and attacks and anything they can bring to bear," Newt Gingrich warned on Fox News last March. Clearly aiming to calm the hysteria, George H.W. Bush recently warned it would be a "ghastly thing" for the United States if "wild Democrats" were put in charge of congressional committees. A Washington Times article fretted that "key administration officials will be so busy preparing for testimony that they will not be able to do their jobs."

But the curious thing about Dingell's little list is that it targets policies--not people. While some Democrats may dream of hauling Karl Rove to the Hill to discuss Plamegate or forcing Dan Bartlett to testify about Dick Cheney's hunting accident, Dingell is one of a number of future Democratic chairs who plan to focus on substance, not sideshows. And, as strange as it sounds, this may not come as a relief to Republicans. The GOP would love nothing more than for Democrats to go off on half-cocked, mean-spirited inquisitions that generate sympathy for the hapless Bushies. Alas, the GOP's conduct during the Clinton years has provided Democrats with a near-perfect what-not-to-do manual.

If they have the guts to do this, and do it right, if they win the Democrats will have it in their power to end this cycle and shut the door on this era of conservative politics. Otherwise we will remain their cats-paws no matter which party is in the majority.

mon dieu. let the games begin.

Blame Chavez.

* emptywheel refers to Digby as a 'she,' twice. that's something i didn't know. i apologise to digby for assuming she was a guy.

* miamiherald:

"In the debate about the reliability of electronic voting technology, the South Florida parent company of one of the nation's leading suppliers of touch-screen voting machines is drawing special scrutiny from the U.S. government.

Federal officials are investigating whether Smartmatic, owner of Oakland, Calif.-based Sequoia Voting Systems, is secretly controlled by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, according to two people familiar with the probe."

are they really preparing to blame a Repug electoral loss on Chavez? Oh well - at least they are preparing to lose.

* latimes:

"The fact that much of Iraq's rugged northern borderlands with Turkey and Iran are under the day-to-day control of a militant organization might come as a surprise to those who thought U.S. forces had handed over authority nationwide to a new Iraqi government.
[]
The efforts to rein in the PKK are a new and strategically important front in the Bush administration's campaign to create a new Middle East, and one of the most complicated political problems U.S. forces face in Iraq. Kurdish leaders, for instance, have battled the PKK over the years in various intramural squabbles, but have been reluctant to clamp down on the group because of its popularity among the Kurdish public and out of sympathy for Kurds in Turkey.
[]
America's Kurdish dilemma stems from the fact that more than 20 million Kurds straddle the strategic borders of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria.

Iraq's roughly 4 million Kurds are arguably the United States' strongest allies in the war-torn nation, and U.S. forces would almost surely face a political backlash in Baghdad if they took military action against guerrilla fighters many Kurds see as heroes.

Yet the Kurdish guerrilla force here is battling one of America's bedrock allies in the region — Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a stable, secular Muslim state in a region trending in other directions. The continuing failure to end PKK violence coming out of Iraq has driven Turkey toward a stronger security arrangement with Iran, which also faces militant Kurds along the Iraqi border, a relationship that can't help but be worrying for Washington.

"How important is the PKK as an issue? Let me tell you that it's important enough that the president of the United States decided that we needed a special envoy to counter the PKK and to try to get all of our efforts in the United States focused in the right direction, along with those of Turkey and Iraq," retired Gen. Joseph W. Ralston, recently appointed the U.S. special envoy to counter the PKK, said after a visit to the region late last month.

"We all believe that the use of force is the last resort, not the first resort," he said. "But having said that, that does not mean that we will not take military action. Quite the contrary: All options are on the table."
[]
After Ralston's visit to the region, Iraqi leaders persuaded the PKK to declare a unilateral cease-fire, an end to the regular cross-border attacks that are claiming the lives of Turkish soldiers on a regular basis.

The PKK agreed, its leaders hoping the expression of goodwill could open the door to significant movement on Turkey's part, starting with an end to what it sees as human rights abuses, recognition of the Kurdish language and possibly amnesty for some PKK fighters who have not been involved in violence.
[]
Ralston has refused to meet with PKK leaders, declaring, "We do not meet with terrorist groups." But Ali said Kurdish leaders hoped to broker a solution in which the PKK would disarm in exchange for guarantees on behalf of Kurds in Turkey.
[]
Recognizing that America's prime aim is to discourage the growing closeness of Turkey and Iran at a time when the U.S. is seeking to isolate Tehran, PKK leaders are arguing that solving the Kurdish question — the main issue that Turkey and Iran have in common — is the best way to accomplish that goal.

"If you cannot solve the Kurdish problem in Turkey, you cannot separate Turkey from Syria and Iran," Bayak said.

"And so without putting Turkey and the Kurds together, you cannot have the fundamental basis for this project of a new Middle East.""

i'm not exactly sure how the LATimes managed to write that article without reference to the $10bn in military aid that the US gave to Turkey last week, in the form of Lockheed Martin fighter jets, or the fact that Ralston is on the board of Lockheed, but there you go. I suspect Mizgin will have something to say on the matter shortly, but I doubt that she will be surprised.

One More Reason to Win – Let Sibel Edmonds Speak

W. David Jenkins III has a good article about Sibel and the cabal:

One More Reason to Win – Let Sibel Edmonds Speak

Sibel Edmonds once told me to “put aside 9/11” and instead concentrate on the workings of the Defense Department, amongst other government establishments, because what she had been trying to warn people about was considered by those involved as nothing more than “business as usual.” That was the real danger. What she had discovered during her short time with the FBI was so threatening to those doing such “business” that former Attorney General, John Ashcroft, couldn’t slap a gag order on her (and Congress) fast enough. But a lot of us already know that.

[]

These relations are connected between former and present Defense Dept. members, The Project for a New American Century members, AIPAC, MIC Inc., Jack Abramhoff, The Livingston Group and others. In other words, the more you dig the bigger the headache you may succumb to, yet you’ll get an idea of how intertwined all the players are. Would you like to go for a little ride? Let’s start with Hastert.

[]

On June 3, 2003, Hastert’s political action committee held a $1500 a plate fundraiser at Jack Abramhoff’s restaurant where he received large donations from, among others, one Duane R. Gibson. Gibson is a consultant with the Livingston Group who has been lobbying on behalf of Turkey for about six years at the cost of $1.2 million a year. The only problem is that the money is not coming from the Turkish government and of course the FBI wants to know exactly who is shelling out all the dough.
[]

Sibel stated many times that when certain intelligence regarding illegal activities (drug or illegal arms trafficking etc.) which benefited alleged terrorist sponsors and that same intelligence also implicated “certain allies or business interests” then that intelligence was not passed on to counter-terrorism agents in the field. Turkish front groups under surveillance by the FBI (ATC and ATAA) were making large payments to officials high up in the government as well as lobbyists with connections to some of these same officials. These same groups were also nuzzling up to groups like AIPAC who had a mutual desire to embrace certain business interests that could enhance their pursuit of intelligence, influence and aid against common enemies.

[]
Other groups with long ties to Turkey as well as upper offices in the government consist of the aforementioned Livingston Group, Solarz & Associates, and The Cohen Group. All three are top members of the American Turkish Council with Vice Chairman of The Cohen Group, Joseph Ralston, sitting on their board of advisors. Getting pretty tangled up, huh?

One other firm I want to point out is the neo-con group, M.I.C. Industries Inc. who boast of some “Ultimate Building Machine” on their web site (it was worth a $60 million contract with Russia back in ’97). Their board consists of amongst others, William Cohen (Cohen Group/ATC) and Richard Armitage (PNAC/Valerie Plame outing) and is headed up by one Michael Asari who once teamed up with Alexander Haig in a corporation called US-CIS Venture Inc. which was established to assist in “developments” in Central Asia as well as establishing oil and gas pipeline projects through the region. M.I.C. Inc. is also one of the Livingston Group’s top clients.

[]

Currently, according to former CIA agent Philip Giraldi, there is an investigation into Israel’s illegal sale of U.S. military technology to countries like China and India. The companies mentioned in this article also have ties to the defense industry through their members’ history in government service – who also share close ties with Turkish front groups (as well as an alliance with AIPAC and JINSA) currently under investigation by the FBI. That these Turkish groups would be involved in the same illegal sales with the aid of the aforementioned businesses is not that difficult of a dot to connect as it definitely reflects the “can of worms” that Edmonds’ superiors at the FBI did not want opened. It’s also worth mentioning that Turkey is a large hub in the drugs coming out of Afghanistan and Edmonds has alluded to the drug trade in her past statements.

Yet, fellow FBI translator Malek Can Dickerson, who had encouraged Sibel to join the ATC, was suppressing intelligence Edmonds was uncovering regarding these front groups and their relationship to “certain allies and American business interests” in deference to the very organizations that the FBI had under investigation.

One can look back at the names mentioned in this criminal activity and notice that many of the players were involved in the more glamorous stories in the news over the past years. Armitage (MIC Inc./PNAC) leaking the name of a CIA operative who was investigating arms trafficking to Iran and Feith and Perle (IA Inc./PNAC) who were instrumental in the invasion of Iraq and who are together with Michael Asari (MIC Inc.) pushing for an attack on Iran are just four of the most notorious examples.

[]

Sibel stated in an interview back in late ’05 that “You can start from the AIPAC angle. You can start from the Plame case. You can start from my case. They all end up going to the same place, and they revolve around the same nucleus of people. There may be a lot of them, but it is one group. And they are very dangerous for all of us.”

I can’t think of a better reason to take back the Congress.

go read the rest. it's a solid backgrounder for those of you who get confused every time I mention Sibel.

importing heroin

i've been running behind all day - but miguel has some comments re my " Perle & Feith and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA)" post.

first:

"In terms of cultural organizations, the only evidence I've seen so far is that Sibel knows specifically about Turkish cultural organizations. However, that does not preclude the Albanians, the Uzbeks or other groups doing the same thing.

What is not entirely clear is what exactly these Turkish cultural groups are doing in terms of the drug trade. Many of these members are Turkish yuppies- professionals with jobs in finance. I see them more as potential money launderers rather than transporters of drugs. After all, if they delivered cash to Hastert's house, they might have helped him launder those same funds.

On the other hand, I told you in a private email once that my cousin ran across a very shady Turkish musician that seemed to have ties to the Turkish mafia. So anything is pobbible. But Sibel seems to imply the major transport network seems to go on cargo planes. Didn't she tell you Celebi Group? So if these musicians do transport drugs, I see them as more the "local distribution network" rather than the transport backbone.

i've never been able to understand that heroin distribution mechanism - i've seen it argued that there is a difference between the importation of coke and heroin. for one reason or other, coke apparently gets delivered by the ton, and heroin gets imported in much smaller lots - 1, 2, 3 kg - although i've also heard of the occasional plane load of H. My *sense* is that for one reason or other (probably historical/legacy), the heroin market enters the 'retail' end of the market much earlier (i.e. pre-importation) in the distribution system. perhaps i'm wrong.

We had a famous case here in the last 12 months where the "Bali Nine" were caught strapped with a kilo or two each to their bodies. i suspect that is the generic M.O. for heroin distribution everywhere - although i have no real idea why that is the case.

miguel, part two:

"It's also worth mentioning I think Sibel was trying to kill 2 birds with one stone when she mentioned an Uzbek cultural group in Germany. 1) She was trying to draw a broad outline without giving specfics i.e. Turkish cultural organizations in America and 2) She was showing that Germany and Uzbekistan play into this whole scandal (Melek Dickerson first worked for the Deep State in Germany; her husband procured weapons for the Uzbeks."

Sibel's 'Uzbek cultural group in Germany' hypothetical did sound a bit weird - i tried to find a group that fit that description and didnt really come up with anything so maybe she was really just using a hypothetical. OTOH - in some of my early sibel stuff i used to say stuff like 'she sounds like she's pointing at Feith - but surely that's just a hypothetical!' - and we know how that turned out...

the oil market isn't in jeopardy

* AP (in full):

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- Coalition naval forces in the Gulf are on watch for possible terror threats to oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Western naval officials said Friday.

A British navy official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, said a threat from al-Qaida last month to target Gulf oil terminals had resulted in stepped-up security and vigilance at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal, as well as a refinery in Bahrain.

Oil exports in the region were proceeding as normal, he said."

these fuckkers. it's difficult to read thru the propaganda - we know that that tensions are already high because the stupid provocation wargaming that's going on in the region - but at the same time there's an imminent election, and the 'threat' was 'last month' and all the reports appear to have the mandatory sentence that the oil market isn't in jeopardy.

fancy that.

it's almost as though they think that the american voter is ok about a new war, so long as the price of gas is flat-lining.

Dennis "Fast Bastert"

calipendence:

" Just got motivated to do a bit of photochoppin' and create a pic "honoring" Dennis "Fast Bastert"!"

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

supporting Suzanne Swift

my buddy allison has a diary at dkos about supporting Suzanne Swift.

go recommend, and sign the petition for suzanne.

you might have people storming the Bastille

* matt taibbi was on demnow (most a regurge of his RS article on Teh Worst Congress Eva ):

"JUAN GONZALEZ: And the impact of this, first of all, in terms of how much of the American people know about these operations and how they've been going now for the past few years, and the impact on the legislation that comes out?

MATT TAIBBI: Well, I think the American people just don't have any idea of what congressional procedure is like. If they knew the way that laws were made -- or not made, in most cases -- I think, you know, you might have people storming the Bastille, you know. What's happened in Congress now is that the process is completely corrupted. In other words, almost everything is a backroom deal now."

* billmon:

"You could say: To hell with old media, they're just a bunch of senile dinosaurs anyway, who cares who they pander to? But old media, for better or worse, still set the news agenda, and still dominate the political process. And they're doing an energetic, if not yet totally successful, job of sucking up new media and sticking them in the same corporate straight jacket. If they decide, as matter of cold capitalist calculation, that one-party Republican rule is the smart way to bet, that could also become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Maybe I'm wrong -- I hope I am. But if I'm right, then in years to come progressives may look back and sigh for the good old days when journalistic "objectivity" still encouraged the corporate media to give the truth and conservative propaganda equal weight, instead of just mindlessly repeating the latter."

read the rest.

* (yes - i'm running way behind on comments and emails and stuff still. apologies. again.)

no additional anthrax briefings to Congress

* msnbc:

"Congress and the FBI are now openly battling over the pace and direction of the anthrax investigation.

Late Monday, Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, sent a damning six-page letter to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales requesting a briefing on the FBI investigation, now five years old. The letter faults the agency for its handling of the case, saying "the FBI has little in the way of results to show for its work."

Meanwhile, in an unusual move, the FBI's top lobbyist has informed members of Congress that the bureau will no longer brief them on the case. The FBI's Assistant Director for Congressional Affairs wrote, "After sensitive information about the investigation citing congressional sources was reported in the media, the Department of Justice and the FBI agreed that no additional briefings to Congress would be provided."
[]
Meanwhile, the FBI recently installed a new team of top investigators to head up the anthrax case. Sources familiar with the case tell NBC News that the new managers are looking anew at all possible suspects, with a much broader focus than before. The sources say that the previous head of the case, inspector Richard Lambert, was moved to a new position within the FBI, in part because he had focused too much on Hatfill."

* you can read grassley's letter here (pdf) - half of it sounds like he is fighting sibel's fight still.

Libby's memory expert

* christy on Libby's memory expert. msncb. wapo.

* nctimes:

" A neighbor of Republican 50th District Rep. Brian Bilbray said Thursday that he was subpoenaed to testify before a San Diego County grand jury in August and spent about an hour and a half answering questions about whether Bilbray lived in his Carlsbad neighborhood."

* Guardian:

"But I was not saying abortions are, in and of themselves, hilarious. I was asking why they never crop up in jokes. Cancer does, cheese does, shagging and gonorrhoea and disabilities and dogs and flowers and terrible, terrible diseases, and all other foodstuffs, and all other genres of people ... There are taboos in political rhetoric, yes, tonnes of them, but in comedy, even in very mainstream comedy, there are almost no taboos. You could make a joke about September 11 before you could make a joke about abortion. And this is not irrelevant, it is not as if the right is inviolable, and the joking is a side issue. If you allow a taboo to hold, you leave all the cultural space open to anti-abortionists.

Ten years on, we can see the results of this. Culturally, there is an even greater silence around abortion, and an even greater refusal to discuss it except in terms of its terrible psychological toll on women. Research in both Britain and America repeatedly shows this not to be the case - that abortion, unlike bringing to term an unwanted pregnancy, does not increase the risk of depression; and furthermore, that the uptake on the compulsorily offered post-abortion counselling is staggeringly low (in some areas it is just 1%). And even she is probably just being polite.

Meanwhile there is an increasing foetus fetishisation in mainstream media - all this "miracle of life" stuff, with six-day-old embryos bouncing around, looking deliciously as if they are playing football with the placenta. It is hard to take this any more seriously than you would those pictures of baby bats in socks (non-readers of the Daily Mail will at this stage start to wonder what on earth I am on about) but, operating in this chamber of cultural silence where mature commentary about women's rights, health and beliefs vis-a-vis abortion simply is not happening, it is not a huge leap of the imagination to think that these dancing-foetus babies are jeopardising the gynaecological freedoms of the next generation."

* Forward:

"Several congressional sources confirmed that major donors to the Democratic Party have been lobbying Pelosi on behalf of Harman’s nomination to head the intelligence committee and that these attempts were not welcomed by the House Democratic leader.

The Time report names Haim Saban, a billionaire film producer of Israeli background and Aipac donor, as one of those who approached Pelosi on Harman’s behalf.

Sources close to the issue, and congressional staffers, have speculated that the Harman issue was raised in an attempt to damage the image of Democratic lawmakers in advance of the upcoming midterm elections. The sources also suggested that the leak might be an attempt to get back at senior Democrats on the intelligence committee for leaking the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which embarrassed the administration.

* Forward:

Tobin said last week that he is planning to publish a separate monograph focusing on the views of American academics regarding Israel and the Middle East. The initial results already suggest that atheists, liberals and those who voted for John Kerry in 2004 are more likely than conservatives and Bush voters to see Israel as a threat to global stability."

!

9/11 widows have an online petition

* Leopold:

"A handful of 9/11 widows have started an online petition in hopes of gathering the public's support to force the White House to declassify documents related to a July 10, 2001, meeting between Condoleezza Rice and former CIA director George Tenet in which the two discussed a pending attack on US soil by al-Qaeda. Details of the meeting were first disclosed a month ago in the book State of Denial by Washington Post assistant managing editor and author Bob Woodward.

In a letter posted on petitononline.com, Patty Casazza, Monica Gabrielle, Mindy Kleinberg, and Lorie Van Auken said that details of the meeting have been confirmed by the State Department and the White House warrants declassification of documents related to the meeting. The widows take issue with Woodward's exclusive access to officials' knowledgeable about the Rice/Tenet meeting and the possibility that he may have been privy to classified documents and transcripts in order to craft a narrative for his book.
[]
Remarkably, the 9/11 Commission said it was briefed about the Rice/ Tenet meeting during the panel's inquiry into the terrorist attacks a couple of years ago, but for reasons still unknown the commission did not include this important detail in its final report to Congress."

go sign.